英國留學生經濟類dissertation作業：貨幣升值造成的貨幣危機機制The currency appreciation caused by the currency crisis mechanism
According to IMF " World Economic Outlook ( 1998 ) " , was studied in 53 countries experienced 158 currency crisis , which developed 42 times , the development of the British state 116 times. Frequent occurrence of currency crises in recent years , infectious and destructive power is also increasing.
依據IMF《世界經濟展望（1998）》，在被研討的53個國度經歷了158質量差的貨幣危機，那里面發達國度42次，進展英國度116次。近年來金錢危機的發生次數多，傳染性和毀傷力也在增加。
First, the currency appreciation caused by the currency crisis mechanism
According to the international balance of payments monetarist analysis, build the currency appreciation triggered a currency crisis analytical framework .
一、本幣增值引發金錢危機的機制
依據金錢主義的國際收入支出：剖析法，構建本幣增值導發金錢危機的解析框架。
( A ) basic assumptions
1.A country with a fixed exchange rate system. Do not assume that country A case of capital openness , foreign capital is still available from a variety of sources ( including false trade, foreign investment and other unlawful false channels ) into the A country market. Profit-driven international capital markets on a country's foreign exchange supply and demand is far greater than the impact of changes in import and export .
( Two ) basic equation
1.MD = P · L (Y, i)
MD on behalf of domestic monetary aggregate demand , P is the domestic price level and the interest rate and the total income Y i function , Md P and Y positively correlated inversely related to i . MS = k (D + R)
MS represents the total money supply , is the base currency of domestic credit D ( including government and commercial bank credit credit DG DB), international reserves and the money multiplier K R function . MS = MD
Money market supply and demand balance. FS = X + CIF (ΔEe, i)
FS ghostwriter supply of foreign exchange from exports and capital inflows X CIF composition. CIF is the expected rate of change in exchange rates and interest rates i ΔEe function with ΔEe anti- correlated positively correlated with i . FD = M + COF (ΔEe, i)
FD represents demand for foreign exchange , import M and capital outflows from the COF composition. COF with ΔEe positively correlated inversely related to i .
6.E = f (FS, FD)
E is a direct quotation of the nominal exchange rate , foreign exchange demand and supply of foreign exchange is a function associated with the demand for foreign exchange counter , a positive correlation with the demand for foreign exchange .
7.ΔR = FS - FD
ΔR represents changes in international reserves , the monetary authorities to maintain a fixed exchange rate , you need to use international reserves in the open market sale of foreign exchange , the realization of foreign exchange supply and demand imbalance in the regulation .
( Three ) mechanism
A national presence currency appreciation expectations , ΔEe negative inflow of international capital in country A through various channels , leading to FS increases , the currency appreciation pressures exist . A country's authorities in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate of E , sell Treasuries buying foreign currency , ΔR is positive , R increases , MS increased and direct response to the rise in the price level P .
To stabilize the price level , to prevent inflation continued , A country tightening monetary policy , raising interest rates i and use window guidance policies to reduce DB. Accompanied by a decline in MS , MD decreased , P decreased , A national foreign exchange market and the domestic money market equilibrium back to the beginning .
A State authorities through the contraction of credit to achieve a fixed exchange rate and price stability objective , the results based on the currency composition of D decrease , R increases. R is increased, so that international capital A country's currency appreciation is expected to strengthen ; i is improved by increasing the capital of international fame attracts the A country's currency . International capital flows will continue to increase , A country will fall into the loop until DG to exhaust , DB shrinkage to a minimum , the monetary authorities to maintain exchange rate stability loss of monetary policy means of regulation , and ultimately to abandon the fixed exchange rate system to the floating exchange rate . Currency crisis which began : A country's currency appreciation pressure has been released, the short-term exchange rate will be greatly appreciated , and even exchange rate overshooting , great impact on the economy .
Second, to prevent currency crises Suggestions
( A ) to strengthen capital controls
Prevent currency crises primary task is to control capital inflows, encourage capital outflows .
Specific measures to control capital inflows are the following : to strengthen the authenticity of the review of international trade enterprise , shall be punished severely export hoaxes ; strengthen international regulatory capital direct investment projects , beware of foreign direct investment into indirect investment ; strictly controlled corporations and financial institutions abroad debts, especially to control and reduce short-term debt ; establish a sound QFII investment management policy , effective regulation of foreign indirect investment capital.
Strict controls on capital inflows , while encouraging capital outflows by way of , slowing the currency appreciation pressure. Should gradually relax restrictions on foreign direct investment , to encourage enterprises to invest overseas sound ; further improve the QDII system to encourage financial institutions to innovate , under the premise of risk control development of diversified foreign currency financial products ; gradually liberalized insurance companies, pension Fund 's foreign investment restrictions , to encourage their conduct diversified global investment ; further liberalization of foreign investment restrictions to individual residents , to purchase foreign exchange quota gradually relaxed , allowing individuals to invest in foreign stocks, bonds and financial derivatives .
( Two ) to deepen financial regulation
From historical experience , the currency devaluation of the currency crisis is often intertwined with the banking crisis , the fragility of the financial system will enlarge currency crisis devastating impact on the economy . Thereby increasing the stability of the financial system is to prevent currency crises necessary measures . Should strengthen the financial institutions' risk awareness, strengthen risk assessment for loans , strict control of the flow of loan funds ; strictly control loans for the real estate industry , and establish a specialized early warning and response mechanisms ; on mortgage management, the strengthening monitoring of capital flows on the loan , to prevent the flow of loan funds and stock market riskier capital markets.
( Three ) to promote the free floating exchange rate
To solve the problem, we need to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the RMB exchange rate determined by the market forces . Final various factors can affect the level of exchange rate fluctuations through the exchange rate daily absorbed by the market , eliminating the sharp appreciation of the RMB devaluation expectations or to avoid currency crisis devastating impact on the economy .
