本文是金融專業的paper范例,題目是“Will Bitcoin Become a Sustainable Global Currency?(比特幣會成為一種可持續的全球貨幣嗎?)”,在許多不同的領域,技術從未以更快的速度發展,在金融領域,比特幣已經席卷全球,成為許多數字貨幣中的佼佼者,因為人類如何彼此交易,并繼續進化。2-3年前,比特幣受到了大量關注,引起了許多人的關注,在其貶值的估值之后,留下了許多不同的問題和擔憂。問題是“比特幣會成為一種可持續的全球貨幣嗎?”
在這門課中,我們學習了經濟學在宏觀層面上是如何工作的。由于比特幣的潛力、炒作和投資者投入的數十億美元,比特幣創下了遠遠超過2000年納斯達克(Nasdaq)泡沫的新高。這是一個新時代,隨著時間的推移,它將在歷史書中走自己的路,重塑全球經濟,甚至比它已經做的還要多。它影響著我們在全球范圍內的金融互動方式,甚至一個公園城市,一個價值數百萬美元的住宅,最近也因比特幣交易而被關閉,這使得關閉非常容易。比特幣的峰值最近超過了18000,這是風險投資家蒂姆·德雷珀(Tim draper)在5年前看到的可預見的未來的估值,人們認為他瘋了,因為他認為它可以達到——它已經成為了現實。現在,比特幣的炒作已經平息下來,監管已經到位,投資者也變得更像李瑞了。比特幣的市值仍然是1850億,即使它沒有有形資產,沒有GDP,這是我們在這門課上學到的動態,也不依附于任何實體或國家,這表明它是多么復雜。研究問題有多個重點,將給出一個有支持證據的答案,這篇dissertation將聚焦于比特幣本身,它如何影響全球經濟,以及它與其他國家附屬貨幣的不同之處,這些國家可能會或可能不會允許它作為一種全球貨幣持續下去,這將極大地改變全球交易的形式。
Introduction介紹
Technology has never moved at a faster rate of development across many different sectors, in finance Bitcoin has taken the globe by storm being the standout in many Digital Currencies as how the human population trades with each other and continues to evolve. Bitcoin received a lot of attention 2-3 years ago and raised the eyebrows of many, leaving many different questions and concerns in the wake of its depreciating valuation. The question is “Will bitcoin become a sustainable global currency?” In this course we have learned how economics works on a macro level. Bitcoin pushed new heights far beyond the Nasdaq bubble of 2000, due to its potential, hype and billions that investors are putting into it. This is a new age and in time it will run its course in history books reshaping global economics even more than it already has. It is affecting how we interact financially on a global scale, even a park city a multi-million-dollar home was recently closed in an all bitcoin currency offer which made the closing very easy. Bitcoins peak recently surpassed 18,000 which was a valuation that Tim draper (venture capitalist) saw in the foreseeable future 5 years ago and people thought he was crazy for thinking it could reach – it has become a reality. Now bitcoins hype has settled down, regulations are in place and investors are more Leary. Bitcoin still a market cap of 185 billion even with no tangible assets for its currency, no GDP which we learned the dynamics of in this course and is not attached to any entity nor country which shows how complex it truly is. The research question has multiple points to focus on that will give an answer with supporting evidence, this paper will focus on bitcoin itself, how it affects the global economy as well as its differences from other currencies attached to countries that may or may not allow it to be sustainable as a global currency which would drastically change forms of global exchange.
Bitcoin比特幣
Bitcoin is encrypted and you own one coin per purchase, or a fraction/decimal at based on what bitcoins valuation is. In an article by Nathan Reiff he states, “There are only 21 billion bitcoins that can be mined in total” (Pg.3, Reiff) That is 21 billion bitcoins that are not able to be cracked nor replicated in circulation. There is only 21 billion as of right now however Bitcoin may be able to change its protocol to allow for an expansion in supply. The gold rush was mining for gold, however now there is a global supply of bitcoins is also finite that are mined by coders predominantly in Canada on massive computers that will cap out at 21billion. This limited supply which causes the prices to increase with demand which is at an all-time high and continues to grow. It is very easy to trade any currency globally through kraken to purchase bitcoin and use as a currency to buy any goods that accept bitcoin. There are many people who see bitcoin becoming a global currency but if so, when, and how would this effect currencies currently in place. If looking back on history, we see every two to three hundred years a mass shift in monetary systems almost like a Kondratieff wave for money. In the renaissance amidst a huge economic downturn the Medici family could establish the Medici bank “which provided services to merchants and eventually lead to making them the one of the wealthiest families in Europe” (chap5, B. kelly). In the 1600’s the Qing Ming dynasty used a bimetallic system with coins as a form of trade which was revolutionary. Fast forward another 200 years to 1871 to the first transfer of money via wire thanks to Western Union. Now modern day, as advanced of a society we are, and as fast as technology is moving, we are due for another huge shift which typically results from a financial crisis. Bitcoin was created in 2009, amidst a huge world economic downturn and originally created for the dark web. Since then, Bitcoin has now established itself as a new form of currency - a technology which is completely revolutionary in how we can trade with one another. It has garnered the attention of large companies for example overstock which has its HQ right here in SLC, they have made a massive bet on Bitcoin, so massive it could make them go under if it doesn’t go as planned. Bitcoin is volatile since it’s so new, however Bitcoin has the power to cause the next shift which we haven’t seen for approaching 200 years. Just as Western Union eliminated a middle man Bitcoin now has the power to eliminate multiple currencies by establishing itself as a global digital currency that will then be looked back upon in two to three hundred years a shift into a new era which will be historic, however that shift takes time, this is just the beginning of a shift over years which would allow it to take over. The shift to bitcoin would completely change our financial systems.
比特幣是加密的,你每次購買都會擁有一個比特幣,或者根據比特幣的估值得到一個分數/小數。在Nathan Reiff的一篇文章中,他說,“總共只有210億比特幣可以被開采”(Reiff Pg.3)。也就是說,210億比特幣無法被破解,也無法在流通中復制。目前只有210億比特幣,但比特幣可能會改變協議,以擴大供應。當時的淘金熱是為了淘金,然而現在比特幣的全球供應也是有限的,這些比特幣主要是由在加拿大的程序員使用大型計算機開采的,其數量將達到210億。這種有限的供應導致價格隨著需求的增加而上升,而需求正處于歷史高點并繼續增長。在全球范圍內,通過海怪交易任何貨幣都可以很容易地購買比特幣,并將其作為貨幣購買任何接受比特幣的商品。有很多人認為比特幣會成為一種全球貨幣,但如果是這樣的話,會在什么時候,以及這將如何影響當前的貨幣。如果回顧歷史,我們會發現每隔二三百年,貨幣體系就會發生一次大規模的轉變,就像康德拉蒂耶夫(Kondratieff)的貨幣浪潮一樣。在經濟嚴重衰退的文藝復興時期,美第奇家族可以建立美第奇銀行“為商人提供服務,并最終使他們成為歐洲最富有的家族之一”(第5章,B. kelly)。在17世紀的清朝,使用了雙金屬系統和硬幣作為一種貿易形式,這是革命性的。再過200年,到1871年,西聯匯款公司(Western Union)首次通過電匯匯款。現代社會,隨著我們的進步,隨著技術的發展,我們將迎來另一個巨大的轉變,這通常是由金融危機引起的。比特幣誕生于2009年,當時正值全球經濟大衰退,最初是為暗網絡而創建的。從那時起,比特幣已經成為一種新的貨幣形式——一種完全革命性的交易技術。它已經吸引了大公司的注意,例如,它的總部就在SLC,他們在比特幣上下了很大的賭注,如此之大,如果它沒有按計劃進行,可能會讓他們破產。由于比特幣是如此的新,所以它是不穩定的,但比特幣有能力引發我們近200年來從未見過的下一次轉變。正如西方聯盟消除中間人比特幣現在有能力消除多種貨幣通過建立本身作為一個全球數字貨幣,然后回頭在兩到三百年將轉移到一個新的時代歷史,然而這種轉變需要時間,這只是多年來轉變的開始,這將允許它接管。向比特幣的轉變將徹底改變我們的金融體系。
Global Impact全球影響
There are countries talking about releasing their own ICO (initial coin offerings) which basically means producing their own form of Bitcoin, however this would contradict that bitcoin can be a singular shift as a sustainable global currency. If countries shift to their own cryptocurrency example from USD to an ICO replacing USD then there would just be encrypted coin currencies used in global trades on a macro and micro level in representation of the united states dollar. Rather than a tangible currency that is produced, shifting to ICO. Europe has been accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for 4 years now. There is a flip side to this which has proven to be very interesting. China briefly at bitcoins peak “banned all forms of ICO’s” (Article, Bus brief). That is 1/3rd the global market that has banning ICO’s as well as the expansion into alternate forms of digital currencies competing with Bitcoins dominant market share. Bitcoin was temporarily affected only dropping for 3 weeks to then surpass its peaks prior to the banning. Resilient, Bitcoin is proving itself without ICO’s, or global support with Chinas withdrawal its able to sustain itself which is why china reentered the market and allows for bitcoin to continue to reach new heights in valuation. At its peak of 18k the market cap was 300b, now at 5,000 down over 60% it maintains 185b in cap. Its proving itself as a global currency since it isn’t associated with any country it was capable to do the opposite that China was intending and sustain itself. Ethereum is starting to have its own share in the digital/crypto market due to the fact it is even more encrypted and able to process more transactions a second. Bitcoin can process 3-4 transactions a second right now, Ethereum 12-15 and visa 400. Bitcoin becoming a global currency is probable by proving independence and its capabilities. It has a predominant force in global economies by integrating itself into all forms of trade and proven to be unaffected by bans. Its counterpart, Ethereum, another digital currency that’s globally recognized. Instead of hundreds of currencies it seems the world is shifting to under a dozen in digital which is making steps to match Visas ability to process such a heavy load of transactions. Below is a visualization of the expansion of Bitcoin globally we have discussed. “Each dot is an individual bitcoin download. The yellow dots are a general reference of all bitcoin downloads ever, while the red ones represent a specific OS use” (Data Visualizations) Red dots are interesting because they represent a transaction. Its already, in 7 years, expanding globally with an emphasis in Europe and the United States which are predominate continents in population, exchange and dominant economy’s.
有些國家正在討論發布他們自己的ICO(首次代幣發行),這基本上意味著生產他們自己的比特幣形式,但這與比特幣作為一種可持續的全球貨幣的單一轉變相矛盾。如果國家將自己的加密貨幣從美元轉移到ICO取代美元,那么在全球交易中就只會有代表美元的宏觀和微觀層面的加密貨幣。而不是生產有形貨幣,轉移到ICO。歐洲已經接受比特幣作為一種支付形式4年了。這也有一個反面,事實證明這是非常有趣的。中國一度在比特幣高峰時期“禁止了所有形式的ICO”(文章,巴士簡報)。這是禁止ICO的全球市場的三分之一,同時也在擴展成其他形式的數字貨幣,與比特幣競爭主導市場份額。比特幣暫時受到影響,只是下跌了3周,然后超過了禁令之前的峰值。比特幣在沒有ICO或全球支持的情況下證明了自己,中國退出了比特幣,它有能力維持自己,這就是為什么中國重新進入市場,允許比特幣繼續達到新的估值高度。它的市值在18k的峰值時是3000億,現在下跌了5000,超過60%,它的市值保持在1850億。它證明了自己作為一種全球貨幣,因為它與任何國家都沒有聯系,它有能力做與中國意圖相反的事情并維持自己。以太坊開始在數字/加密市場擁有自己的份額,因為它更加加密,能夠在一秒鐘內處理更多交易。目前,比特幣每秒可以處理3-4筆交易,以太坊12-15筆,簽證400筆。通過證明其獨立性和能力,比特幣很可能成為一種全球貨幣。它融入各種形式的貿易,在全球經濟中具有主導力量,事實證明它不受禁令的影響。與之對應的是以太坊,這是另一種全球公認的數字貨幣。世界似乎正從數百種貨幣轉變為十幾種數字貨幣,這是為了配合簽證處理如此沉重的交易負荷。下面是我們討論過的比特幣全球擴張的可視化圖。“每個點都是一個單獨的比特幣下載。(數據可視化)紅點很有趣,因為它們代表了一筆交易。在7年的時間里,它已經在全球范圍內擴張,重點放在歐洲和美國,這兩個國家在人口、交換和經濟方面占主導地位。
Inflation & Volatility通貨膨脹和波動性
Bitcoin has a long way to go to get where it is fully capable of getting to there are many pros and cons, Goldman Sachs and ledgerX cater to sophisticated investors and after the crash they had difficulty navigating their new business ventures with investors that they had stake in. They found there were many delays in the crypto exchange, and the bank itself hasn’t received regulatory approval to buy and hold actual bitcoins for their customers which presents some issues. In the New York Times article its said “the smart money knows crypto is not ready” which has a pessimistic yet optimistic standpoint, the smart money knows there is potential but there is time that is needed for it to be less volatile, and a more stable form of not only investment - a form of trade. Many lot countries have issues regulating currency and bitcoin could be a great way to fill that void when bitcoin stabilizes it can avoid the issues that come with a countries currency instability such as the inflation in Zimbabwe. Bitcoin would allow the mass populations of people in these countries to not only have access to a currency that is more stable, but without needing to convert it they would be able to send it to and from people in other countries effortlessly. This is already being done as we see in the map pictured above bitcoin wallets are also in undeveloped countries crypto power rises leading in the direction of a global currency.
比特幣要達到它完全有能力達到的水平還有很長的路要走——有很多優點和缺點,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和萊杰克斯(ledgerX)迎合的是老練的投資者,在金融危機之后,他們在與自己持有股份的投資者進行新業務時遇到了困難。他們發現,加密貨幣交易所存在許多延遲,而銀行本身尚未獲得監管機構的批準,無法為客戶購買和持有實際的比特幣,這帶來了一些問題。在《紐約時報》的文章說,“聰明的錢知道密碼是沒有準備好”的悲觀又樂觀的角度來看,精明的投資者知道有潛力,但需要時間,波動較小,和一個更穩定的形式不僅投資貿易的一種形式。許多國家都存在貨幣監管方面的問題,而比特幣可能是填補這一空白的好方法,當比特幣穩定下來,它可以避免國家貨幣不穩定帶來的問題,比如津巴布韋的通貨膨脹。比特幣將使這些國家的大量民眾不僅能夠獲得一種更穩定的貨幣,而且無需進行轉換,他們就可以輕松地與其他國家的人進行貨幣往來。正如我們在上圖所示的地圖中所看到的那樣,比特幣錢包也已經在不發達國家實現了,加密貨幣力量的崛起正引領著全球貨幣的發展方向。
Sustainability可持續性
Bitcoins capabilities lead to massive potential to become a sustainable global currency pros and cons weighed out which are in constant discussion in headlines even recently we saw a spike. There were many concerns discussed with inflation and how complicated these markets are to predict, Tim draper when asked if he would ever sell of his Bitcoin, he says why would I sell my currency. This is referring to Bitcoin as replacing what we have grown accustomed to, for example the dollar. However, there needs to be more logic to it than that, Bitcoin is being driven by the media attention not so much the valuation behind it. There are no assets, no forms of production, resources dictating its value other than it being a finite resource. The SCC has started to put restrictions on bitcoin that affect it in multiple ways in how it will be used globally. Regulations have potential to pop the bubble seen with bitcoin which may lead to sustainability by having rules in place it would be less volatile. Globally countries have started to regulate bitcoin which has been making the volatility of Bitcoin less aggressive.
比特幣的能力導致了巨大的潛力,成為一個可持續的全球貨幣的利弊權衡,這是不斷討論的頭條新聞,甚至最近我們看到了一個高峰。人們討論了很多關于通貨膨脹的問題,以及這些市場的預測有多復雜。當被問及是否會出售比特幣時,蒂姆·德雷珀(Tim draper)說,我為什么要出售我的貨幣。這里指的是比特幣取代了我們已經習慣了的東西,比如美元。然而,比特幣需要更多的邏輯,它是由媒體關注驅動的,而不是背后的估值。沒有資產,沒有生產形式,沒有資源決定它的價值除非它是有限的資源。SCC已經開始對比特幣進行限制,這些限制將從多個方面影響比特幣在全球的使用方式。監管有可能打破比特幣泡沫,通過制定規則,比特幣的波動性將會降低,從而實現可持續性。全球各國已經開始對比特幣進行監管,這使得比特幣的波動變得不那么劇烈。
A new global currency this would affect the economy in so many ways completely shifting future generations ways of interacting with different countries. These restrictions that are out in place regulate it and benefit the peripheries already positioned in our core countries that make our global economy function the way it does right now by having more of a global market. Below are two charts, Chart 1 shows bitcoins surge and Fibonacci retracement after the bubble popped and became more stable, and Chart 2 shows bitcoin in comparison with Nasdaq in 2000. There is a bubble that is visibly present. The chances of a currency like bitcoin being able to sustain itself when it’s as volatile as wall street in terms of recessions in the market is makes it likely it can be utilized in the long run and if history repeats itself, we will see bitcoins value rise and billions can be made, and put into the economy.
一種新的全球貨幣將在許多方面影響經濟,完全改變未來幾代人與不同國家的互動方式。這些限制措施對我們的核心國家進行了監管,并使邊緣國家受益,這些國家擁有更多的全球市場,使我們的全球經濟以現在的方式運行。下面是兩個圖表,圖1顯示了比特幣在泡沫破滅后的飆升和斐波那契回檔,并變得更加穩定,圖2顯示了比特幣與2000年納斯達克的對比。有一個明顯存在的泡沫。像比特幣的機會貨幣能夠維持本身的時候像華爾街動蕩的市場經濟衰退使得它有可能可以利用從長遠來看,如果歷史重演,我們將看到比特幣價值上升,數十億美元,并投入經濟。
Conclusion結論
In conclusion Bitcoin can be a functional global currency its well on its way to completely revolutionizing economics completely. It is an advanced form of currency that will evolve trade and the global economy however over time it won’t happen overnight. Bitcoin will be a socioeconomic norm in 100 years, in 10 years it should be in the range of 1.3 billion (according to Tim Draper) bitcoin wallets, today there are 32 million. There will be a day that it is comical to purchase anything other than via digital currencies like bitcoin even with its competitors such as Ethereum. It’s insane to be amidst a global shift, Investors are pumping billions into this market since there is an insane value in this technology. It is more secure than any other currency due to encryption and extremely mobile which shows how wiring money have influence in the use of bitcoin. Right now, a countries dollar is backed by their forms of production, wealth and resources and this is decentralized and allows for endless possibilities.
總之,比特幣可以成為一種功能性的全球貨幣,它將徹底改變經濟學。它是一種先進的貨幣形式,將推動貿易和全球經濟的發展,但隨著時間的推移,這不會在一夜之間發生。比特幣將在100年后成為社會經濟規范,10年后它應該在13億比特幣錢包的范圍內(據蒂姆·德雷珀),今天有3200萬。總有一天,除了通過比特幣這樣的數字貨幣購買任何東西,即使是與以太坊這樣的競爭對手一起購買,也會變得滑稽可笑。在全球轉變的背景下,這是一件瘋狂的事情,投資者正在向這個市場投入數十億美元,因為這項技術具有驚人的價值。比特幣比其他任何貨幣都更安全,因為它具有加密功能和極強的移動性,這顯示了電匯貨幣對比特幣使用的影響。現在,一個國家的美元是由他們的生產形式,財富和資源支持的,這是分散的,允許無限的可能性。
It would be a struggle to find valuation in a country having its own ICO and the problem of no singular currency would remain, granted it will take decades for bitcoin to ever be able to be used as a global currency, sustaining itself and eliminating all forms of financial exchange that are in use is within reason, bitcoin may have a “segment of market share” (Pg.916 Springer) in the years leading up to the global shift. That market share being 1.3 billion people is a huge share of the market. It will continue to have a tremendous impact and will one day be able to sustain itself when all 21 billion bitcoins are sold off in circulation there will be a valuation reflecting that. The market cap with however much of the worlds money that will equate too will balance itself out, right now it’s at 300billion. It was great to go so in depth on the capabilities of bitcoin, and see how the future will be for myself, and future generations. It’s a phenomenon that isn’t going to go anywhere soon this is only the beginning and it will be interesting to see if this is how it actually plays out or if everyone rooting for bitcoin will have to watch its demise rather than its continued success.
這將是一個很難找到的估值在一個國家有自己的圖標和沒有單一貨幣將保持的問題,當然還需要幾十年的比特幣是否能夠作為全球貨幣,維持本身和消除各種形式的金融交易所使用是合理的,在全球轉移之前的幾年里,比特幣可能有一個“部分市場份額”(Pg.916施普林格)。13億人的市場份額是一個巨大的市場份額。它將繼續產生巨大的影響,并將有一天能夠維持下去,當所有210億比特幣在流通中被拋售時,將會有一個反映這一點的估值。不管世界上有多少錢,它的市值也會平衡,現在是3000億。能如此深入地了解比特幣的功能,并看到我自己和未來幾代人的未來,真是太棒了。這種現象不會很快消失,這只是一個開始,看看它是否真的會這樣發展,或者所有支持比特幣的人將不得不看著它的消亡,而不是繼續成功,這將是很有趣的。
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