股票價格對投資影響的分析An analysis of the impact of stock price on investment

1、A balance sheet is proposed, and the meaning of effect
一、財物負債表效應的提出及意義

As every1 knows, Tobin's Q effect is an important channel of asset prices, including investment influence enterprise stock price. Tobin Q effect is the analysis of the financing in the stock market to enterprise change in stock price investment how to change, but the enterprise in addition to the direct financing in the stock and capital market, also can rely on internal cash flow and internal financing from banks and other financial institutions to obtain loans and indirect financing, therefore, influence the investment of stock prices on the enterprise also should consider the stock price changes on internal financing and indirect financing, then the impact on investment. Effect of stock price changes on internal financing is indirect, but has little effect, so, few scholars to discuss and study this problem. But has been studying changes in stock prices influence on enterprises indirect financing is the hot issue in theoretical circles, which is called the balance sheet effect.

盡人皆知，托賓Q效應是財物報價，包括股市報價影響公司出資的重要途徑。托賓Q效應是剖析那些在股市市場上融資的公司在股市報價發作改變時出資怎么改變，可是公司除了在股市等本錢市場上進行直接融資外，還能夠依托公司內部現金流進行內部融資和從銀行等金融機構取得借款而進行直接融資，因而，研討股市報價對公司出資的影響還應思考股市報價改變對公司內部融資和直接融資，進而對出資的影響。股市報價的改變對公司內部融資的影響是直接的，并且影響也不大，所以，理論界很少去討論和研討這一問題。可是關于股市報價的改變對公司直接融資的影響卻是理論界一向研討的熱點問題，即所謂的財物負債表效應。

The balance sheet effect also known as net wealth effect, or the financial accelerator mechanism. The most comprehensive study of this effect is Bernanke, Gertler & Gilchrist (1998) [1] study. The balance sheet effect refers to the change of enterprise stock price will cause changes in net worth, because enterprises obtain loans from banks mostly the mortgage, so the change of enterprise value will influence enterprise to obtain mortgage loans from banks, and then influence the use of indirect financing of investment ability and desire, this kind of influence has multiplier effect, therefore, also known as the financial accelerator mechanism, in addition, this effect is affected by the assets and liabilities of enterprises and banks, namely, the net asset value and effect, therefore, also known as the assets and liabilities of Xiao Ying.

財物負債表效應又稱凈財富效應，或金融加快子機制。對這一效應最全面的研討當屬Bernanke，Gertler & Gilchrist（1998）[1]的研討。財物負債表效應是指公司股市報價的改變會引起公司凈值的改變，因為公司從銀行取得的借款大多數是典當借款，所以公司凈值的改變會影響公司從銀行取得典當借款的才能，進而影響其使用直接融資進行出資的才能和希望，這種影響具有乘數效應，因而，又稱為金融加快子機制，別的，這種影響是通過影響公司和銀行的財物負債情況，即凈財物值而發作效果的，因而，也稱為財物負債表效應#p#分頁標題#e#

2、Mechanism of action of 2, the balance sheet effect
二、財物負債表效應的效果機理

(1)the choice of enterprise financing ways
　（一）公司融資方法的選擇

Enterprises to invest the necessary funds, mainly from 2 aspects: 1 is internal funding, mainly is the enterprise retained funds, namely the enterprise cash flow, it is the difference between the enterprise income minus costs, tax and business owners income; another is external funding, including through direct financing financing and indirect financing to obtain funds from banks and other financial institutions in the stock and capital market. Enterprises in the selection of the mode of financing, mainly is based on cost-benefit analysis, namely, what kind of financing the cost minimum on the choice of what kind of financing way. Between internal and external financing, while the internal funds also have the opportunity cost (generally is calculated with the market interest rates to measure), but relatively speaking, the cost of internal financing or marginal cost is relatively low, therefore, theoretically speaking, enterprises will choose internal financing.
Between direct financing and indirect financing, the choice of enterprises is relatively complex, in general, leading in the markets, direct financing is better than that of indirect financing, this is because the market oriented countries financial market is relatively developed, perfect, residents participation higher, direct financing is relatively easy; in the bank oriented country, indirect financing is better than that of direct financing, in part because the country's financial market is relatively underdeveloped, residents participation degree is low, the direct financing is relatively difficult, on the other hand, the bank dominated national bank system more perfect, the function is completed, and the company has established a close relationship between banks and enterprises, enterprises indirect financing is relatively easy. From the angle of cost and benefit, enterprises tend to choose direct financing, because, whether to issue stocks or bonds, its cost relative to the bank loan interest is still relatively low, but also will not be subject to bank supervision and credit rationing constraints (of course direct financing also has many disadvantages, such as the dilution of ownership financing risk is relatively large, etc.). Although there are many better than direct financing indirect financing, but for those who can not get enough funds for investment through direct financing of enterprises (such as the number of small enterprises, non joint stock company), indirect financing becomes the only option.
(2) the asymmetric information between banks and enterprises and its optimal solution
From the bank's point of view, the use of capital is an important aspect of their business, is also an important source of the profits, but because the credit market with asymmetric information, banks as the fund provider is unable or very difficult to lower the cost of m1y demand is enterprise's credit status, therefore, in such a "lemon market", the banks at a disadvantage in terms of information. To the problem of moral hazard and avoid or reduce the adverse selection problem caused by the credit status of enterprises to conceal the true and produced by enterprises illegal use of credit funds to the bank losses, banks need to provide adequate collateral or collateral, banks may raise loans or loan rationing.Require the enterprises to provide sufficient collateral or collateral is conducive not only to solve the problem of information asymmetry between banks and enterprises, but also conducive to safeguarding the interests of enterprises, because, for those who rely mainly on bank loans for investment enterprises, if the banks do not have a mortgage, is bound to increase loans or loan rationing, which makes enterprises or increase the indirect financing cost, or can not get enough credit funds, thus affecting the normal investment. Therefore, the introduction of mortgage or mortgage (i.e., collateral value is greater than or equal to the amount of loans) is the optimal choice in line with Bank of mutual interest, but also to solve the credit market as the best solution to adverse selection and moral risk caused by information asymmetry.#p#分頁標題#e#
(3) influence the stock price changes to corporate borrowing capacity
Because of the existence of asymmetric information in credit markets, banks require companies to provide collateral or collateral in the loan, therefore, to some extent, business borrowing ability is the enterprise can provide collateral or collateral value to measure for the bank. The enterprise for the bank to provide collateral or collateral, in theory, can be a factor of production and income, including labor and capital factors and benefits, therefore, business for the bank to provide collateral or collateral includes not only the raw materials, machinery equipment, plant and enterprise shares, bonds etc. securities, but also includes the income or profit for the enterprise, is the enterprise cash flow. That is to say, the enterprise provides for the bank guarantee or collateral should include 2 parts: 1 is the cash flow of the enterprises; the other part is the difference of enterprise assets minus liabilities, net assets of the enterprise is. But looked from the practice, the enterprise to banks to provide collateral or collateral is only the net asset value of the enterprise, this is because, for the company's cash flow, the bank is difficult to be observed and monitored. Therefore, the influence of stock price on corporate borrowing capacity is actually the stock price changes on the enterprise can provide to the bank collateral or collateral value, which influence the net assets of enterprises.
The stock price changes will affect the corporate equity, because, for listed companies, the market value of corporate assets is the enterprise of the stock market, when the stock price of the enterprise changes, the enterprise value of the assets will also change in the value of debt, the same situation, enterprise's net asset value will change with. For non listed companies, if these enterprises for stock investment, then the stock price changes will affect the short-term investment and long-term investment, and then influence the value of the assets. In addition, the change of stock price will affected by the macroeconomic environment and macroeconomic policies and the total supply and demand of the business environment and market supply and demand, thus influence the cost or value of the assets, such as corporate asset purchases, stock prices can cause or aggravate the macroeconomic environment, further deterioration of the business environment at this time, enterprises may be forced to sell assets, but because stock prices lead to total supply than the total demand, namely market including asset market conditions tend to pile up in excess of requirement, enterprises have to sell their assets, which suffered the loss of asset value.
In short, the stock price rises will increase the net assets of enterprises, and increase the enterprise to the bank can provide collateral or collateral, which can enhance the enterprise bank loan ability; on the other hand, stock prices will reduce the net assets of enterprises, and enterprises to reduce the bank's collateral or collateral value, which reduces the enterprise bank loan ability.#p#分頁標題#e#
(4) influence the stock price changes on the indirect financing cost of enterprises
The main basis for the choice of corporate financing mode is the financing cost size. Enterprises in the indirect financing, that is borrowing from banks, if indirect financing cost is very high, has exceeded the enterprise for the expected investment returns, even if the enterprise has enough ability to borrow and no other financing options, the enterprise will give up financing or to abandon the investment, leading to reduced investment. Therefore, analysis of the impact of changes in stock prices of investment on the enterprise use of indirect financing should not only consider the stock price changes impact on corporate borrowing capacity, should also consider the stock price changes impact on the indirect financing cost of enterprises.
Have a certain relationship of indirect financing costs and internal business financing cost, namely the indirect financing costs of enterprises is the enterprise's internal financing cost and the cost of external financing premium and. The enterprise's internal financing cost is the enterprise internal capital opportunity cost, including m1y market interest rates (also known as the average profit rate of the funds or the risk-free rate) and the risk adjusted cost (to increase the amount that is adjusted according to the enterprise own situation after the cost). The risk adjusted cost and the situation of enterprises and in recent years the capital profit margin, if the situation of enterprises, in recent years the capital profit rate is relatively high, then the risk adjusted cost of enterprises is relatively low; on the contrary, it is relatively high.
The cost of external financing premium, also known as the agency cost, refers to the bank in order to avoid or reduce the adverse selection and moral hazard caused by the asymmetric information in the credit markets for their losses, to the enterprise is higher than the additional cost of enterprise interior cost of financing. The cost of external finance premium is also known as the agency cost, because in the credit market, the principal-agent relationship a fact the formed between banks and enterprises, and the cost of external financing premium reflects the enterprise as principal or agent cost paid to the bank as agent agent fee. The cost of external finance premium depends on bank loans to business risk, namely the possibility of the occurrence of adverse selection and moral hazard, the risk size can use financial leverage of enterprises, namely the net asset value of the loan and the amount of enterprise (enterprise will provide to the bank collateral or collateral value) measured as the ratio of. Therefore, the cost of external financing premium is an increasing function of financial leverage.
To sum up, the indirect financing costs of enterprises should include 3 parts: the cost of m1y market interest rate, the risk of the enterprise adjustment cost and the cost of external finance premium. Therefore, analysis of the impact of changes in stock prices on indirect financing costs of enterprises is the analysis of the impact of changes in stock prices on the 3 part of the cost. First of all, the stock price changes will affect the m1y market interest rates through the following 2 ways: first, the stock price changes by the impact of macroeconomic policies, such as the impact of m1tary policy, m1y market interest rates, the stock prices rise, the central bank or the m1tary authorities to prevent the stock market bubble and the implementation of tight m1tary policy, capital market interest rates rise, on the contrary, m1y market interest rates; second, the stock price changes by affecting the stock investors in the future stock price changes are expected to affect m1y demand, and then influence the capital market interest rates, for example, when stock prices rise, people will expect stock prices will continue to rise and the increase of stock holding, thus to reduce the demand for m1y (namely the speculative demand for m1y, leading to reduced) m1y market interest rates. The 2 way is the role of the opposite, because m1tary policy formulation and implementation of the decision factors are very complex, and the current central banks or m1tary authorities pay attention to the change of stock price is relatively low, therefore, the stock price changes by the impact of m1tary policy on the m1y market interest rate than the m1y demand effect on market interest rates. That is to say, theoretically speaking, the stock price and m1y market interest rates are negatively correlated, stock prices rise, m1y market interest rates, ceteris paribus, indirect financing cost of enterprises will be reduced; on the other hand, is on the contrary.#p#分頁標題#e#

Secondly, the stock price changes will affect the risk adjusted cost of enterprises. Risk adjusted cost of enterprises depends on the operation of enterprises, therefore, for listed companies, stock prices will rise enterprises by reducing the cost of financing and improve their business, thereby reducing the risk adjusted cost of enterprises; for non listed companies, the costs and benefits of rising ticket prices will increase the enterprise of shares of stock investment, as to whether it will improve their business situation is uncertain, thus affecting the risk adjusted cost of enterprise is uncertain; however, whether listed or unlisted companies, stock prices rise will be through the wealth effect, the liquidity effect, Tobin's Q effect and balance sheet effect to improve the enterprise's sales status, and improve its operational condition, therefore, the stock price changes will reduce the risk adjusted cost of enterprises, thus reducing the cost of indirect financing.
Finally, the stock price changes will also affect the cost of external financing premium. As menti1d before, the external financing cost premium depends on the level of leverage, or borrowed m1y and net assets of enterprises enterprise ratio. For listed companies, the stock price rises, the enterprise financing in the stock market on the cost will be reduced, but also relatively easy financing, therefore, enterprises to raise funds in the stock market should be more, for the amount of capital investment gap is relatively small, the enterprise bank loan amount is relatively small, in the net assets of enterprises. The case, leverage is relatively low, the external financing cost premium is relatively low; on the contrary, the external financing cost is relatively high premium. For unlisted enterprises, enterprises for investment funds mainly come from the indirect financing, therefore, has no direct effect on the amount of stock price changes on corporate borrowing from banks, but an indirect effect, namely, stock prices rise will increase the company's future economic situation improved expectations, then increase the enterprise investment aspirations, thereby increasing the enterprise bank loan amount. Therefore, affect the amount borrowed to enterprises from the perspective of the stock price changes, listed and non listed companies in opposite directions, it is difficult to judge the direction of the comprehensive function, that is to say, very difficult from the stock price changes on the amount borrowed to judge the impact of changes in stock prices on the financial leverage of enterprises, thereby affecting external to the enterprise financing cost premium. Effect of stock price changes on the net assets of the enterprise have been discussed, namely, stock prices rise will increase the net assets of enterprises, thereby reducing leverage, to reduce the enterprise the cost of external financing premium; on the contrary, stock prices will reduce the net assets of enterprises, increase the financial leverage of enterprises, and improve the the cost of external finance premium business. Generally speaking, in theory, stock prices rise will lead to decrease leverage and the cost of external finance premium, thereby reducing the indirect financing cost of enterprises.#p#分頁標題#e#
To sum up, has a negative effect on stock price changes on enterprises indirect financing cost, namely the stock price rises, the indirect financing cost reduction of enterprises; on the other hand, stock prices fell, the indirect financing costs of enterprises increased.
(5) the multiplier effect of the balance sheet
The above analysis shows that, the stock price rising increase the borrowing capacity, reduce the enterprise of indirect financing costs, thereby enhancing the enterprise the ability and desire to bank loans, the increase of enterprise investment. But this by improving the assets and liabilities of enterprises and increase its investment through indirect financing of the effect is not closed, static, but a process of open, dynamic, which has a multiplier effect. Stock prices rise, on 1 hand, by increasing the indirect financing of enterprises to increase investment, increase business income increased investment and the investment multiplier effect, so as to increase the enterprise's cash flow; on the other hand, stock prices rise directly led to the increase in net asset value of the enterprise. Increasing corporate cash flow and net assets and increase the ability of the enterprise to borrow from banks and reduce the financing cost, so as to further enhance the ability and desire to bank loans, so that the formation of the stock price rise, increased investment, income (cash flow) and an increase in net assets, investment increased, move in circles process and, on each trip through the loop, resulting in higher investment and income, thus forming a multiplier effect of the balance sheet.
(6) the family and the bank's balance sheet effect

The effect of the balance sheet is the stock price changes is realized by changing the balance status of enterprises in the balance sheet effect, namely the enterprise's balance sheet effect. The effect of the balance sheet should also include the household balance sheet effect and the bank's balance sheet effect. Family balance sheet effect refers to the stock price changes by affecting the family stock wealth to influence household balance sheets, thereby affecting families gain ability and desire to mortgage for the characteristics of the consumer credit from the bank, thus affecting families rely on consumer credit in consumption. The family income is not fixed, often fluctuate, but every family want to smooth their lifetime consumption, also is to make each time consumption do not appear larger fluctuation, therefore, families may face liquidity constraints or more. The solution is to face a liquidity constraint from banks or other financial institutions to obtain loans, the liquidity is more abundant, will store the excessive liquidity. While banks and other financial institutions in order to avoid or to reduce the adverse selection and moral hazard caused by the asymmetric information in the credit losses, usually require the family provide full collateral or collateral, to this, the stock price changes may affect the family through borrowing capacity and financing cost of household consumption.#p#分頁標題#e#
The bank's balance sheet effect refers to the stock price changes by affecting the bank to the quality of family or corporate issuance of mortgage and affect the ability and desire to bank loans for new mortgages, even affect the treatment of loans, thereby affecting household consumption and business investment. When the stock price rises, households and enterprises will increase from value bank loan collateral or collateral will, asset quality will improve the bank, the bank is willing to lend more or extend loans repayment period, so as to stimulate household consumption and business investment. Conversely, when the stock price falls, households and firms reduce from the value of bank loan collateral or collateral will, asset quality deterioration will banks, banks will reduce loans, even for families and businesses ahead of the return of old loans, thereby inhibiting the household consumption and business investment. The effect of the balance sheet balance sheet effect with enterprises, households and banks alike, have a multiplier effect.
Study on the effect of 3, balance sheet problems
So far, research on the effect of the balance sheet are mainly some theoretical models and empirical research, the views are quite scattered, no comprehensive review about the related research effect of balance sheet. The effect of the balance sheet of the article is the synthesis of all kinds of related to the balance sheet effects of scattered point data from [2-13], into their views, ideas and comments, and use their own logic sorted out.
Based on the analysis of effect of the balance sheet, some of which theory is the balance sheet effect to draw definitive conclusions are necessary, but the lack of relevant empirical researches. For example, the stock price changes on the enterprise to obtain the effect of the amount of borrowing from the bank, the result of 2 opposite between listed and non listed companies, but in theory it is difficult to determine the results of the comprehensive functions, which requires the corresponding empirical studies help to make a clear judgment, but unfortunately, this paper also not to collect such empirical research literature. For instance, the influence mechanism of stock price changes on the m1y market rate theoretically 2, direction as the 2 mechanism is the opposite, although according to their own point of view summarized their integrated role orientation, but also a lack of empirical research support. Therefore, we think, research results related to the balance sheet effect is outstanding, view is correct, but the lack of system, the related research viewpoints and conclusions overall, deep discussion and summary, in addition, also need to strengthen the empirical research on the balance sheet effect theory.
In addition, a few domestic studies on the effect of the balance sheet, including the theoretical research and empirical research. This is mainly because, in theory, domestic scholars seldom able to break through the theoretical model of the balance sheet effect, it is difficult to have a theoretical innovation; from the empirical perspective, a domestic enterprise data, especially the micro data of rare or difficult to obtain, the domestic empirical research on assets balance sheet effects due to lack of data and difficult to complete, on the other hand, because China's stock market is not mature, strong speculations, resulting in the net assets of stock market value changes between the listing Corporation and the actual degree of correlation is not high, therefore, financial institutions in these few consider changes its stock market value of listing Corporation loans, or only as a reference, resulting in China's stock market balance sheet effect is relatively weak, the scholars in its empirical research, often do not get a significant or very weak results, which led to a balance sheet effect empirical study very little domestic important reason.#p#分頁標題#e#