關于財政收入增速和放緩的常態分析

Abstract摘要

財政收入能夠反映宏觀經濟。在經濟繁榮時期宏觀經濟波動周期的各個階段，財政收入會呈上升趨勢，但在經濟衰退中，財政收入會呈下降趨勢。除了宏觀經濟周期的影響，一個國家的經濟結構，財稅體制，經濟增長的質量，稅收征管，通貨膨脹和其他財政收入也是重要的決定因素。因此，短期的收入下降是沒什么大不了的，關鍵是，是否這一下降趨勢會一直持續下去。
Revenue reflects macroeconomics. Macroeconomic fluctuations cycle stages in the economic boom, fiscal revenue upward trend in the economic recession, fiscal revenue showed a downward trend. In addition to the macroeconomic cycle effects, a country's economic structure, fiscal and taxation system, the quality of economic growth, tax collection, inflation and other financial income is an important factor in the decision. Therefore, the short-term decline in revenue is not a big deal, the key is whether this downward trend has been sustained.

 

I.INTRODUCTION:Financial income situation is not optimistic引言：財政收入形勢不容樂觀

 

Since reform and opening, with the improving economy, fiscal revenue has also increased, especially in the 1994 tax reform, the release of "bonus system" so that revenue into the track of rapid growth, fiscal revenue 521.81 billion yuan in 1994, 1999 reached 1.144408 trillion yuan. Doubling approximately every four years thereafter, the fiscal revenue growth, in 2011 more than 10 trillion yuan mark, reaching 10.37 trillion yuan. Revenue growth over the long-term economic growth. As an important means of national income distribution, public finances should be more prominent, "from the people, giving back to people," the original meaning, so that more and better public services to benefit all citizens, so as to quell people questioned the financial growth. 

收入增長的歷史已接近尾聲，收入增長跌入谷底將會是什么時候呢？截至2008年底開始的第一輪刺激政策配合各項經濟指標顯示，英國經濟自2011年開始進入了新一輪下行周期。自從進入2012年，國內外宏觀經濟不景氣，結構性減稅，房地產和疊加，使稅收等因素在不同程度上有所下降，2011年以來，英國持續的收入逐月回落態勢，繼續下滑。

Revenue growth history is nearing completion, revenue growth fell short when the bottom? By the end of 2008 to start the first round of stimulus policies limited time, various economic indicators shows that the British economy since 2011 began to enter a new round of downward cycle. Since entering in 2012, domestic and international macroeconomic downturn, structural tax, real estate and other factors superimposed, making the tax revenue declined in varying degrees, the British continued revenue down month by month trend since 2011, continued to decline .#p#分頁標題#e#

 

Recently released economic data in July 2012, exacerbated concerns about the situation in the economy. 2012 January-July, the national civil 11.448 trillion yuan investment in fixed assets, up 25.5 per cent nominal growth, the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points from January to June. July 2012, total retail sales of social consumer goods 1.6315 trillion yuan, up by 13.1% nominal growth (after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 12.2%), 1-7 months of monthly growth rate decline. Month of July 2012, the British import and export value of 328.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 2.7%. Among this, exports 176.94 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1%; imports 151.79 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.7%; trade surplus of 25.15 billion U.S. dollars, narrowed 16.8%. July RMB loans increased by 540.1 billion yuan, lower than the previous forecast of 683.8 billion yuan institutions, the highest since October 2011 since ten months low. 2012 January-July, the national real estate development and investment 3.6774 trillion yuan, up by 15.4% nominal growth, the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points from January to June. July UK manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.1%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from last month, slightly higher than the critical point. July new orders, new export orders index were 49%, 46.6%, down 0.2,0.9 percentage points, reflecting the future production and export situation is not optimistic. July 2012, the national consumer price index rose 1.8%; January-July average, the overall level of consumer prices rose 3.1 percent over last year.

 

II.THE THEORY：the financial sector need to make some adjustments正文:金融業需要做出一些調整

The central government realized the seriousness of the overall economic situation, "steady growth" become a top priority, given the recent return of CPI growth rate to 2% or less, further easing of monetary policy began, and even some local governments, massive stimulus policies, no doubt these have helped to save the economy downward direction, the British economy is expected to bottom out in the third quarter and a slight rebound. The same time to cause people to be vigilant of the local stimulus policies may exacerbate local government debt, thereby increasing systemic risk of the financial system, for policy-makers to pay more attention to balance the short-term benefits and long-term benefits, benefits and risks in a prudent manner to promote is the right choice.

 

 

2012 revenue growth will inevitably slow down. If the government work report in accordance with 7.5% annual economic growth, and in accordance with previous years, the average income elasticity of 1.06 calculated fiscal 2012, revenue growth is likely to reach 12.7%. It would appear that if the future economic growth remained at 7.5% -8%, then the average annual revenue growth rate will be 12.7% -13.5%. Future economic growth is likely in the long term to maintain around 8 percent is already a basic judgment, fiscal revenue growth will inevitably fall down to a moderate speed, may lead to lack of sufficient number of overcharges or overcharges missing. This means that the lack of sufficient motivation to do something, so that revenue will not help the situation after the reform. (See Figure 3)#p#分頁標題#e#

 

The rapid growth of fiscal revenue in the past, the United Kingdom and the reform of economic and social development of a strong financial security, take a lot of the cost of reform, the public nature of the UK public finances continue to strengthen. With the British continue to promote transformation and upgrading, the future British revenue growth slowdown will become the norm, and we have a certain psychological expectations. Crisis can also bring a favorable turn, specifically, the financial sector also need to make some adjustments in the future.

 

1. Establish homeostasis cyclical budgetary basic principles. Previous budgets tend to be static annual budget, you can not respond well to some unexpected event or the impact of the economic cycle, resulting in budget execution passive position. Some large-scale construction of public investment projects often take several years or even longer, which would change the existing balanced budget principle, extending the budget cycle, the formation of the principle of homeostasis. Thus, even if a deficit in the year is not terrible, as long as you can make fiscal surplus, currently set "budget balance adjustment fund" also reflects this principle. This principle also applies to future debt budget even intergenerational budget, balance different periods of the current and future public services enjoyed by taxpayers and tax burden, which is a scientific concept of balance.

 

2 more prominent performance management expenditure. No amount of financial funds are difficult to bear the cost of waste, not to mention the future financial growth era will end. Government departments spend money to establish conservation awareness, a greater emphasis on results-oriented, establish performance concept. Budget performance management can enhance the department's sense of responsibility, sense of efficiency, you can better improve government management, improve the quality of public services. Overall performance management will push the Government to enhance administrative efficiency, improve the government's credibility.

 

3 more emphasis on structural optimization. Compared with the total amount of monetary policy, fiscal policy, structural adjustment in a more prominent role, serving the future structure of the UK economic restructuring and upgrading, structural adjustment of fiscal policy promising. Revenue growth fell after the government will pay more attention to "skillfully deflected the question" leverage, reduce general administrative expenses, the funds to invest in some key areas, focusing on fostering independent innovation capacity, change the past, focus on the concept of physical capital investment, invest more the field of human capital, such as education, health care, social security, etc., enhance the development potential UK.  

 

4. Hardening budget constraints of local governments. The current financial system does not allow local bonds, but the local governments in the expansion of the administrative assessment under the economies of scale and  improve its revenue rational choice, SBC phenomenon still exists. To better constrain the behavior of local governments to reduce unnecessary waste and distorted decision-making and reduce the impact of expanding economic systemic risk, we need to depart from the design of the system, hardening budget constraints of local governments, so that the behavior of local governments to the central goal of unification the expected goals up, to achieve real incentive compatibility. The future, where if you can own bonds, debt can receive double the budget and capital market constraints, coupled with the current public budget has intensified, which will regulate local debt financing behavior, but also conducive to optimizing the structure of local expenditures .#p#分頁標題#e#

 

5. Demand management policies to turn. Expansionary fiscal policy is more of a "demand management" policy, but this stimulus is likely to cause some of the following negative consequences, while concerned about the effective supply-side needs. One is stimulated foreign demand, exports and therefore needs to consider the benefits to the UK and financial cost borne. The second is to stimulate demand for short-term policy may overdraft future demand, future demand caused by sluggish growth, will fall into the excessive dependence on the stimulus, the impact of fiscal sustainability. Three is continuing to stimulate demand, is likely to exacerbate the structural imbalances UK. Imbalances in the UK economy is essentially a structural imbalance, lack of demand and supply shortage coexist, although insufficient effective demand through the expansion of public investment or consumption to make up for the lack of private investment or consumption, but will also bring some squeeze the effect, if you can not work on effective supply from both, is likely to lead the economy into inflationary pressure. Fourth, sustainable economic growth in the UK, we must strengthen the endogenous driving force of economic growth, including increased investment in technology and research and development and tax incentives, encourage and guide enterprises and industries into this area; expand small and micro businesses tax cuts, expansion of employment. Five is an urgent need to increase the "three rural" investment, enhance the UK's food self-supply capacity, reduce inflationary pressures.

III.CONCLUSION結論

Scocial welfare spending to moderate growth. With the continuous improvement of national life, the public also increases the expectations of social welfare spending, the government response to public opinion, but also continue to increase investment in social welfare, social security system coverage and standards continue to increase in the minimum wage been increasing. But Western countries prone sovereign debt crisis has reminded us that we must guard against "welfare trap." Britain faces growing aging demographic dividend gradually disappear challenges, maintain and strength, financial welfare expenditures match, and implement existing farmer-friendly policy, it will be a long and important work.

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