基于生命周期假說的居民的消費研究

高儲蓄、高投資和低消費問題是中國經濟存在的一個由來己久的問題。消費率長期偏低，不能與投資率形成合理的比例關系，必然會使經濟增長失去最終需求的支撐。2008年全球金融危機爆發，世界各大經濟體都受到沉重的打擊，對嚴重依賴出口的中國經濟增長帶來比較大的壓力。在這一背景下，對我國消費者行為進行分析，利用統計數據合理推斷適合我國基本情況，并且建立消費函數，從而引導消費者消費，對我國的消費具有重要的理論意義，和實際價值。長久以來，西方經濟學家一直致力于消費函數的研究，多人還為此獲得了諾貝爾經濟學獎。然而我國關于消費函數的研究起步較晚，且采用的研究方法比較單一，多是用國內相關經濟數據來擬合新古典理論的單個消費函數模型，缺乏對新古典消費函數暗含的消費者行為的各個假定進行檢驗以判斷其是否符合中國國情，使得實證結果往往缺乏解釋力。本文擬通過對消費者行為的外部環境假定和內在假定進行分析，然后采用莫迪利安尼等人的生命周期假說，對統計數據進行回歸分析，建立統計模型。然后得出在生命周期假說下居民消費的研究。并提出自己的建議。

 

Content abstract: high savings, high investment and low consumption and the problem is China's economic existence of an origin has long problem. Long-term low consumption rate and can not be with the scale of form a reasonable investment, will make growth lost the support of the final demand. In 2008, the global financial crisis, the world's major economies are subject to heavy blow, to rely heavily on exports of China's economic growth brings more great pressure. In this context, to the country's consumer behavior analysis, using statistical data that reasonable suitable for China basic situation, and establish consumption function, so as to guide the consumer spending, to our country the consumption has important theoretical significance and practical value. For a long time, the western economists have been committed to the consumption function of the study, many people were still won the Nobel economics prize for this. But for China's consumption function of the later start, and USES the research method is more of a single, more relevant domestic economic data is used to fitting new the classical theory of individual consumption function model, the lack of new classical consumption function of the implied of consumer behavior all assumptions on test to decide whether it is consistent with China's national conditions, makes the empirical results often lack the ability. This paper proposed by the consumer behavior of the external environment assumption and inner assumptions on analysis, and then used MoDiLi Annie the life cycle hypothesis, to the statistical data of regression analysis, to build a statistical model. And then in the life cycle hypothesis that under the consumption of the residents. And put forward its own proposals.#p#分頁標題#e#

 

Keywords: life cycle hypothesis consumption statistical model

 

1 the introduction 

 

1.1 why is concerned about the consumption of residents in our country 

 

Known as China has joined the WTO, so want to be able to keep one's feet in the world trade, a country's residents consumption ability will be a very important factor, but also in today's world consumption occupies important economic position, and promote economic development important force to promote social progress. In recent years, the rapid development of our country economy continues to maintain, even in 2009, is China's economic development since the new century, one of the most difficult year in the face of the international financial crisis in generations of very complicated situation at home and abroad, China's GDP reached 33.5353 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the previous year. After the beginning of last year's decline in exports and economic downturn, the rapid recovery in the second half of the Chinese economy, GDP to achieve high growth, further narrowing the gap with Japan. Experts predict that China will surpass Japan in 2010 years, to become the world's second largest economy. But may also decline in consumption. In 2007, a sudden subprime crisis broke out in the United States, and then spread to the global financial markets, international economy is vulnerable, rely on export-led economic growth in China is no exception. Along with a series of rescue measures, China's economy was the first to recover from a downturn, rise. The current subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global economic turmoil has been gradually reduce, but people are rethinking the pros and cons of consumption patterns in the United States. Consumption is the domestic demand, while China's rise in consumer spending has been stable, but its share of total consumption has a downward trend. Income a consumer relationship is an important part of the western macroeconomics, foreign scholars study of income a consumer relationship a lot, developed many consumption theory, policy and countermeasures in the western countries provides a good theoretical and empirical basis. Domestic consumption problems, by contrast, started relatively late, and mostly in the form of the use of western consumption theory model, using China's data fitting, leads to the consumption function of China. As a matter of fact, the western consumption theory implied assumption of consumer behavior of the external environment and internal assumption, ignoring the inspection of these assumptions directly fitting the data is not satisfactory. If economic growth is driven by investment, the growth model are highly susceptible to the influence of natural resources, environment and other factors and constraints. No consumption guidance and coordination, the expansion of investment is blind, will reduce the quality of economic growth, leading to frequent severe economic fluctuations, impossible to support the economy continues to grow. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

As is known to all, exports, investment and consumption is drive economic growth troika. Long-term since, our country's dependence on exports for economic growth is too large, and consumption in stimulating economic growth in terms of performance is not satisfactory. If economic growth mainly to expand exports, this way of growth will inevitably affected by the international economic environment change, also easy to cause the international trade friction. China will be in a passive position, disciplined by others. In addition, to expand investment to realize the growth of economic growth mode is difficult to make the people real challenges brought about by the rapid economic growth level and quality of life improved, such as real estate investment overheating. So only the growth of domestic consumption demand leading road, depends on the final consumption demand can improve health, effective and steady growth. Domestic demand growth for current and future primary and key factor to promote the growth of our economy. Since the second half of 2008 in China began to implement a proactive fiscal policy, its main purpose is to increase the domestic demand, and stimulating domestic demand is the main measures of increasing public investment. 

 

1.2 the current situation of the residents' consumption in our country 

 

Long-term since, our country residents' income in the removal of the necessary expenses outside money to savings has become a tradition. Most people are not reluctant to spend, but did not dare to consume. In their future life no real protection before, they have to save enough money for a rainy day. In other words, our country has not establish a perfect social security mechanism to give citizens the welfare. Although growth in China, but does not improve welfare level to a proper level. Only build a with the current social welfare system that can meet the needs of economic development in our country, promote and improve the quality of people's welfare "that meet the needs of sustainable consumption patterns", to promote the sustained economic steady development in our country, building a harmonious socialist society. 

 

Economic development goal is to improve people's livelihood, consumption is the purpose of production, the living conditions of residents consumption share decline shows no keep synchronous rise, with economic growth may also deteriorated. Because the ultimate goal of economic development is to improve the level of social welfare of residents and the quality of life, investment and export is also in order to better meet the demand of residents' consumption way or means, consumption of pulling effect on economic growth more enduring and relatively stable, for the healthy development of the national economy has a very important role. However, many factors that affect the consumer, not only to income, and personal consumption tendency, so the consumption of the our country now presents a cautious consumer spending. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

In recent years, with the speeding up of the marketization process, city of fixed assets, means of livelihood and production data such as consumer prices gradually rise, and imperfect social security system, increase residents income to consumption, but a large part of the savings rise, to alleviate the pressure of future expected expenditures. The figure below illustrates the residents' consumption is falling with the increase of disposable income, so although our country residents income has increased. But under the downward trend in the development of the global economy, appeared not soft, with consumption attitude and know our country residents now is the consumption of a cautious attitude. 

 

Figure 1 consumption tendency along with the changes in the disposable income of residents in our country 

 

2 residents life cycle hypothesis principle 

 

Life cycle consumption theory put forward by American economist franco DE franco modigliani. Life cycle consumption theory is that people will be in quite a long period of time span plan their spending, so that in the entire life cycle to achieve the best allocation of consumption. Look from personal lifetime development order, one less income, as a young but have the urge to consumption, consumption energy consumption condition, the spending will be more than income; After entering middle age, income will gradually increase, the income is greater than consumption, its income can repay debt when he was young, and can be accumulated for the future of old age; Retired after aging, income decreases, which in turn will more than income, form a negative savings. But overall, the consumption is always in existence, assume that are making money from birth to death in consumption. 

 

Lifecycle consumption theory have an implicit psychological assumptions, namely people is aversion to risk, in order to avoid risk, in the entire life cycle to achieve the best allocation of consumption, in quite a long period of time span plan within their own consumer spending. When young, personal income is low, but consumption desire is strong, spending is bigger, the consumer is more than income; After entering middle age, income increase, income is more than consumption, can repay debt when he was young, and can be save for the future old age; After aging, income decreases, the need for negative savings to maintain. The whole society the proportion of different ages will affect the total consumption and savings. For example, the proportion of the young and the old society, the social consumption tendency is high, the propensity to save is low; Large proportion of middle-aged society's propensity to save is higher, low propensity to consume. Life cycle consumption theory emphasizes or pay attention to long time even life consumption, people make plans on the consumption of his life, uniform consumption in order to achieve the biggest meet the entire life cycle. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

So this article only captures the data to study for a period of time, for a period of life cycle and the connection between the rendered and the whole cycle and consumption is the same, of course, there will be some disadvantages, but the general direction of research. 

 

3 Article 

 

3.1 correlation analysis 

 

The number of correlation analysis is to analyze the relationship between objective things analysis method. When no definite function relation between the two things, but can influence each other, the relationship is not as direct as function relation, but it is common, and some relationship is strong, some weak relationship, degree of each have differences, this paper is to study the effect of various economic indicators for the insurance industry, so the first index correlation analysis, among them, draw a scatter diagram and the correlation coefficient is calculated by correlation analysis of the most commonly used tools. 

 

3.2 linear regression analysis 

 

Regression analysis is a widely applied quantity analysis method. It is used to analyze the statistical relationship between things, concentrates on the number of variables between change rule, and through the form of the regression equation to describe and reflect this relationship, to help people accurately variables affected by one or more other variables, and provide scientific basis for forecasting. 

 

Regression analysis of the general steps are as follows: 1, to determine the regression equation of the explanatory variables and explanatory variables. 2, determine the regression model. 3, the regression equation is established. 4, the regression equation for all kinds of inspection. It was article in correlation analysis to determine the relationship between two variables, on the basis of using the least squares estimation, establish regression equation, respectively, and then the equation of goodness-of-fit is F test and t test was carried out on the regression coefficients, thus come to the conclusion. 

 

4 the empirical analysis 

 

4.1 the data source and variable selection 

 

In this paper, using the time sequence data from 1992 to 1992 (see the table below data source), involving the general data types from 1992 to 2010 period, gross domestic product, per capita consumption expenditure and the per capita disposable income, per capita consumption tendency, etc. The data source: China statistical yearbook 2010, the national bureau of statistics 

 

Table 1, 1992-2010 GDP and per capita consumption tendency 

 

The annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita disposable income per capita savings per capita consumption expenditure per capita consumption tendency #p#分頁標題#e#

 

1992186681013.888330.82161235 

 

1993217811089.939320.85511345 

 

1994269231310.1711160.85181778 

 

1995353341647.1613930.84571779 

 

1996481982207.3718330.83042001 

 

1997607942849.3623550.82652546 

 

1998711773355.7927890.83113241 

 

1999789733626.0430020.82793278 

 

2000844023939.3931590.80193346 

 

2001896774223.6833460.79223564 

 

2002992154606.2136320.78854493 

 

20031096554877.138690.79334457 

 

20041203335206.741060.78864587 

 

20051358235854.7944110.75344963 

 

2006159878663349250.74255007 

 

20071832177401.4454630.73815986 

 

20082119238460.3761380.72556665 

 

2009257305.69891.3871030.71817658 

 

201030067011438.3681830.71548276 

 

4.2 correlation analysis 

 

Through the analysis of the data, we can observe, personal disposable income, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) there is significant statistical relationship between consumer spending, but the relationship was not able to use mathematical function accurately describe them, in order to preliminarily understand the strength and direction of the relationship between them, and we used the SPSS correlation analysis, the preliminary observation of gross domestic product (GDP), personal disposable income per capita, per capita consumption expenditure, the correlative relationship between quantity of consumption tendency. 

 

Computing the correlation coefficient of concrete steps: open the SPSS, Analyze, correlate, Bivariate correlations, and then the selected variables: gross domestic product (GDP), personal disposable income, per capita consumption expenditure, click OK. 

 

Figure 2 related analysis result table 

 

By the SPSS result, personal disposable income and consumption expenditure per capita and GDP per capita savings and simple correlation coefficient is above 0.9, the test of the correlation coefficient of probability P values below 0.001. Therefore, when the significance level a is 0.01, correlation coefficient test of the null hypothesis should be rejected, think that is not zero correlation between two overall. Show very strong correlation between both. And is negative correlation with per capita consumption tendency. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

4.3 regression analysis 

 

First in the previous step based on the results of correlation analysis, in order to analysis and annual consumption and statistical relationship with the rest of the indicators, focus on considering the number of variables between change rule, and through the regression equation in the form of description and reflect this relationship, help us to accurately grasp the variables affected by one or more other variables. And then determine the regression model. According to the data shown in the information and related analysis results, we can determine a good statistical model. 

 

In after the preliminary processing of all data, using the least squares (OLS), statistics, using SPSS software to return, can get consumption regression model with the data. Is the first known data obey normality assumption, and population variance is equal to the variables. Study survey data approximate to multidimensional normal distribution, the reliability of data is better, the quality is higher. 

 

Figure 3 regression analysis results (a) 

 

The meaning of each column in the table above in the order: be explained variable and the correlation coefficient of variables, the determination coefficient R2, adjust the coefficient of determination R2, the estimated standard error of the regression equation. Based on the table for test of goodness of fit. By the determination coefficient in the table 1, which can be thought of goodness-of-fit is higher, can be explained variables were part of model to explain more, cannot be explained some of the less. 

 

Figure 4 (2) the regression analysis results 

 

The meaning of each column in the table above in the order: be explained variable sources of variation, from the sum of squared residuals, freedom and significance test of variance, regression equation of values that F test statistics and probability P values. By the F statistics in the table 1.749 e4, and the corresponding probability P values approximate to zero, while the significance test of regression equation. A is 0.05, the probability P value was significantly less than a, refused to regression equation the significance of the null hypothesis, that the regression coefficient is not complete for 0. Can establish regression model. 

 

Figure 5 the regression analysis results (3) 

 

The meaning of each column in the table above in the order: regression coefficient and regression coefficient of standard error, standardized partial regression coefficient and regression coefficient significance test of the t test statistics of the observation value, the corresponding probability P values. On the basis of the table can undertake significance test of regression coefficients, write the regression equation. Can see: if the significance level of 0.05, then the regression coefficient significance test probability P value is smaller than a t test. So should reject the null hypothesis, that is, it is with explanatory variables significantly linear relationship. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

By above analysis, we can build model: 

 

Y = 0.794 + 0.049 X to 61.229 X 

 

With Y per capita disposable income, per capita savings X said, X said consumer spending per capita. By model can know one yuan per income to savings, but only 0.049 yuan to 0.794 yuan consumption, thus the residents prefer to save their income, the consumption of a cautious attitude. From the test of goodness of fit, parameter estimate inspection t value, and significance test of regression equation F value can be seen that the linear model of statistical test is successful. And in the original data we can see the propensity to consume to the residents in the continuous decline, while income increase but residents to spend money on the decrease, this also shows that the residents in the consumption of more cautious. 

 

People's consumption is mainly made according to the income distribution, and the marginal tendency has great relationship with the consumer, and the life cycle of consumption assumptions, life cycle theory of consumption have an implicit psychological assumptions, namely people is aversion to risk, in order to avoid risk, in the entire life cycle to achieve the best allocation of consumption, in quite a long period of time span plan within their own consumer spending. To see people in the life cycle of consumption is reduced, the residents' consumption in the future have security, so residents consumption in a prudent manner. 

 

5 Conclusions and countermeasures 

 

5.1 the conclusion 

 

By gross domestic product (GDP) in 1990-2008 in front of him, personal disposable income, per capita consumption tendency of empirical analysis, we can draw the following conclusion: 

 

Through the external environment for consumers hypothesis and the intrinsic hypothesis analysis, and data validation show that the consumer behavior under the life cycle hypothesis is true, and expected results are the same. Clear that when the level of social security and development of people's life level and the level of economic development does not adapt, people will savings because of inadequate social security, to safeguard their future life; When preventive savings for the future, people of the current consumer spending would be reduced. When increased social spending, people are not used to increase the current consumption, but in the protection of their reality at this stage the basic life demand increase after saving for the future, the prevention of future high consumption and high spending, or is to prevent the risk of future known or unknown, uncertain expectation. The Chinese concept of consumption. The traditional notion, the conservative consumption concept. "Living within their means, pay attention to saving, be industrious and frugal", after the income doesn't completely consumption, or an increase in income, in ensuring the basic life after open more used to savings, rather than increased consumer spending in other areas. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

In the economic development of our country is in the early stage of development, although the reform and opening-up, the economic development of our country excellent achievements, but residents all aspects of consumer spending has increased, development level of economy is growing too fast and residents' consumption level is high also growing faster, so residents consumption, during that week period present a careful attitudes. 5.1 policy Suggestions 

 

In order to better develop the economy of our country is to caution about consumer attitudes, put forward the following Suggestions 

 

(1) the farmers' labor remuneration income low became the bottleneck of restricting farmers' consumption 

 

Income is the most important factors affect consumer spending. Relevant government departments should focus on creating ways to increasing the income of residents labor remuneration to help them improve the level of consumption increase income. 

 

(2) consumption environment is poor, poor infrastructure, reduces the market absorption capacity 

 

Consumption of rural residents from purchase to use depends on the specific environment, lack of market access conditions, also has restricted the rural market development. 

 

(3) the farmers' consumption idea lag 

 

In current rural labor force, lower cultural quality of farmers as a whole, is bound to affect the consumer goods, especially the demand for labor. And by the influence of small-scale peasant economy thought for a long time, farmers are still not fully get rid of the status quo, not aggressive thoughts, some without making clear the relationship between thrift and rational consumption, the one-sided emphasis on savings, afraid to raise the level of consumption. Combined with some abnormal consumption, but spent most of the income, so the money used for normal consumption less, inevitably influenced the improvement in consumption level and consumption structure improvement. 

 

(4) to establish a good market order, protect the legitimate rights and interests residents 

 

Pay attention to the consumption of the economy, strengthening the protection of consumers' rights and interests, improve the consumption environment. In view of the situation of consumer market order confusion, to intensify efforts to rectify and standardize market order, especially to crack down on the market and sale of counterfeit goods, price fraud behavior, such as provide residents with a good consumption environment. First, the government should intensify their efforts to support the basic industrial and strengthen its enforcement efforts in the market, to crack down on illegal sale of counterfeit goods, irregularities, put an end to happen the HaiNong, KengNong events, safeguard the legal consumer rights and interests of consumers, let residents can rest assured bold consumption, promote the growth of consumption. #p#分頁標題#e#

 

Overall, as a rapid developing country, the economy in our country emphasizes the full development, harmonious development, should not only to carry out to every corner of the country, and should increase the intensity of spending, faster running of leading people to realize a comprehensive well-off society goal. To speed up the perfect system of social consumption, maintain a stable and reasonable level of consumption, is particularly important, as the center of the government's work. Our country can become a real sense of power and power. 

 

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