經濟學作業：貿易平衡The trade balance

經濟學essay：貿易平衡The trade balance

摘要 -Abstract
 

業務平衡或凈出口(有時NX的象征)是在給定的時間內一個經濟體內出口商品和進口商品貨幣價值的差額。這是一個國家的進口和出口之間的關系。是一個積極的平衡被稱為貿易順差如果出口總額超過進口總額;負平衡被稱為貿易逆差,或非正式的貿易逆差。有時分為平衡商品和服務貿易的平衡。

Business balance or a net exports (sometimes a symbol of the NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of output in an economy during a given period of time, measured in money. It is a state of the relationship between the import and export. [1] a positive balance is known as the trade surplus if it contains exports exceeded imports; Negative balance is known as the trade deficit, or informal trade deficit. Sometimes divided into the balance of trade in goods and services. 

 

理解貿易平衡-Understand the trade balance 
 

The trade balance is a country in a given year foreign trade imports and exports basically leveling. Throughout the world trade policy practices ( regional ) government , this phenomenon is not much. A government in foreign trade should seek to maintain a basic balance between imports and exports , a slight surplus , which is beneficial to the healthy development of the national economy . If a country is often a trade deficit phenomenon , the national income will be out of the country so that the country's economic performance weakened. Government To improve this situation , we must take the depreciation of the national currency as the currency decline, disguised to lower export prices , can improve the competitiveness of export products. Therefore, when the country's foreign trade deficit widened , the currency will be bearish , bringing the country's currency fell ; Conversely , when there is foreign trade surplus , it is good that currency . Therefore, the international foreign exchange trading position is a very important factor . Trade friction between Japan and the U.S. to fully illustrate this point. U.S. trade deficit with Japan in recent years , resulting in deterioration in the U.S. trade balance . In order to limit Japan's trade surplus with the United States , the U.S. government put pressure on Japan , forcing the appreciation of the yen . The Japanese government is doing everything possible to prevent excessive appreciation of the yen in order to maintain a more favorable trading conditions .

 

By a country's foreign trade situation caused by the impact of exchange rate starting , you can see the direct effects of changes in the international balance of payments position of a country's exchange rate. If a country's balance of payments surplus , the country's demand for money will increase the country's foreign exchange inflows will increase , resulting in an increase of the country's currency . Conversely, if a country's international balance of payments deficit , the country will reduce the demand for money , the country's foreign exchange inflows will be reduced , leading to decline in the country's currency , the currency devaluation. In the balance of payments impact of various projects in the biggest trade in addition to the above items , as well as the capital of exchange rate changes . Trade balance surplus or deficit directly affects currency exchange rates rise or fall . For example, one important reason for the falling dollar , the U.S. trade deficit is increasingly serious. In contrast, Japan, due to huge trade surplus , the balance of payments situation is better , the yen 's foreign exchange rate showed a rising trend . Similarly, capital surplus or deficit directly affects the ups and downs of currency exchange rates , when a country has a large deficit in the capital account , the balance of payments and other items not enough to make up for the country's balance of payments deficit will appear , causing their Foreign currency exchange rate fell . On the contrary , it will lead to an increase of the national currency exchange rate.
 

General trade, connotation, means that the buying and selling of goods. In international trade, trade import and export. Trade balance is simply the difference between the value of export and import value. Therefore, trade balance according to different countries in the process of the import and export of goods. It shows that the value of the country's export and import. If the export of over a period of time is worth more than the value of imports, it is called a trade surplus, on the contrary, if the value of imports over exports over a period of time, this is unfavorable balance of trade. The trade surplus shows that good economic conditions. 

 

The policy of early modern Europe are grouped in the mercantilism. Imbalance of trade early understanding of the practice and abuse of mercantilism in colonial America's natural resources and economic crops for export finished products from England, a factor led to the American revolution. Said earlier in the common wealth of England in the field of discourse, in 1549: "we must be careful, we purchased from stranger than we no longer sell, so we should be poor and rich." Similar systems [2] and consistent explanation of the trade balance is made public by Thomas Mun c1630 "the treasures of English foreign trade or, our foreign trade balance is the rules of our treasure" [3]  #p#分頁標題#e#
 

定義-Define 

 

The balance of trade forms part of the current account, including other transactions such as income net international investment position as well as international aid. If a current account surplus, China's net international asset position increases correspondingly. Equally, a deficit reduction net international asset position. 

 

Trade balance is the same difference between the output of a country and domestic demand (and the difference between goods produced in a country how many goods to buy from abroad, it does not include re - spent on foreign stock, the concept of the imported goods are not factors for the domestic market production). 

 

Measure the balance of trade may create a problem, because the problem of the records and data collection. To illustrate the problem, when all the countries in the world of official data, exports exceeded imports by nearly 1%, the world seems to be a positive trade balance. This is not true, because all transactions involve equal credit or debit card account of every country. This difference is generally considered to be due to trade money laundering and tax evasion, smuggling and other visible problems. Especially in developed countries, however, the accuracy is possible. 

 

Factors that affect the trade balance including: 

 

The cost of production (land, labor, capital, taxes, incentives, etc.) of economy exports relative to imports. 

 

The cost and availability of raw materials, intermediate products and other investment; 

 

Exchange rate movements; 

 

Multilateral and bilateral and unilateral tax or restrict trade; 

 

Non-tariff barriers, such as environmental, health or safety standards; 

 

The availability of enough foreign exchange to pay for imports; and 

 

In the price of domestically produced goods (responsive) supply 

 

In addition, the trade balance, the whole business cycle may be different. The export-led growth (e.g., early oil and industrial products), trade balance will improve in the economic expansion. However, with the leading domestic demand growth, such as the United States and Australia trade balance will deteriorate in the same phase of the business cycle. 

 

Currency trade balance is different from physical trade balance [4] (this is the number of raw materials, also known as the total material consumption). Developed countries often import a lot of raw materials from developing countries. Usually, these imports of raw materials into finished products, may be after the export increase value. Financial trade balance data hidden material flow. In most developed countries have a large physical trade deficit, because they have a large ecological footprint. Civil society organizations is pointed out that the imbalance of plundering nature, ecological debt repayment and campaign. 

 

Since the mid - 1980 - s, the United States has in tradeable goods growing deficits, especially in Asian countries (China and Japan) holds a large amount of U. S consumer debt. [5] [6] countries such as the United States and Australia's trade surplus. Trade deficit problem can be complex. Such as tradable commodity trade deficit to produce finished products or software may affect the domestic employment than different level in the raw materials trade deficit. 

 

Savings surplus countries, such as Japan and Germany, usually runs a trade surplus. China's economic growth, tend to run a trade surplus. Higher saving rates generally corresponds to a trade surplus. Accordingly, low savings rate in the United States often run high trade deficit with China, especially in Asian countries. 

Difference between Balance of Trade and Balance of Payment

 

The impact on the economy 

 

From the classical economic theory, neglect the influence of the long-term trade deficit may confuse David ricardo's comparative advantage principle and the principle of Adam Smith's absolute advantage, especially to ignore the latter. Economist Paul Craig Roberts said, by David ricardo, the principle of comparative advantage do not hold production elements in international movement. [7] [8] global labor arbitrage phenomenon economist Stephen s. Roach described, make use of cheap labor in a country, would be an absolute advantage, not mutually beneficial. [9] [10] [11] in 2010, the economist Ian Fletcher wrote an important job, free trade doesn't work, you should replace it, why, he supports the idea of trade strategy, rather than an unconditional or unilateral approach. [12] 

 

A small trade deficit is usually not considered harmful to the import or export economy. However, when a country trade imbalance to expand beyond prudent (generally considered to be a few clarification need percentage of GDP for years), tend to change. [13] and unsustainable imbalances are likely to continue for a long time (cf, Singapore and New Zealand surplus and deficit, respectively), distortion may be caused by the big economic wealth flows, into another tend to become unbearable. [citation needed] 

 

In short, the trade deficit is the payment in foreign exchange reserves, and these reserves could continue to empty, at this time, foreign importers have stopped buying. This may be the influence of the exchange rate: deficit economic loss value of the currency relative to the currency of the surplus economies will change deal the relative price of a commodity, and promote rebalancing or overcorrecting (historical data) is usually a surplus, in the other direction. 

 

When an economy cannot export enough physical pay its physical import, it can find other funds: service export, for example, will be enough to cover Hong Kong domestic imports. In poor countries, foreign aid may be compensated, and the developed economies of the capital account surplus caused by selling assets usually offset current account deficit. There are some economies shift from citizens working abroad has made an important contribution to pay for imports. The Philippines, Bangladesh, Mexico transfer - examples of rich economies. #p#分頁標題#e#

A country may balance the trade deficit at home through quantitative easing. This includes the central bank to print money, make its can be used for other domestic financial institutions in the small interest rates, thereby increasing the money supply in the home economy. Inflation is usually the result real depreciation debt owed to foreign creditors, if the home currency debt is instantiated. 

 

"In the part of this chapter I try to show, even in the business system, the principle of how unnecessary special restrictions lie at the import goods from these countries should be unfavorable balance of trade. However, nothing can be more absurd than this whole trade balance principle and in, not only these restrictions, but almost all of the other business regulations established. When two local trade, the absurd theory believe that if more balanced, neither losses or gains; however, if it is in any degree tilt to one side, one of the lost and other income proportion the delicate balance of tilt." (Smith, 1776, the fourth book, ch. Iii, part 2) [14] 

 

The Keynesian economic theory 

 

In the past few years of his life, John Maynard Keynes is pay more attention to the problem of international trade balance. He was head of the British delegation in the United Nations monetary and financial conference in 1944, the bretton woods international monetary system management was established. 

 

He proposed - the so-called Keynes and the lead author of the plan, the international clearing union. Plan of the two management principle is to solve the balance of the outstanding problems should be solved "create" additional international currency, and the debtor and creditors should be almost similar to balance the disturbers. In this case, however, the plan was rejected, partly because of the "American opinion is naturally reluctant to accept the principle of equality of treatment, so the novel in the creditor's rights debt relations". [15] 

 

Support his point of view, many economists and commentators, is a creditor may responsible debtors imbalanced communication, should have an obligation to trade back in balance. Failure to do so may lead to serious consequences to them. Geoffrey Crowther, editor of the economist, "if not economic relations between nations, by some means, has brought the very close to balance, and then there is no set financial arrangement, can save the world from chaos results." [16] 

 

These ideas are event notification before the great depression - Keynes and other international loans, mainly from the United States, is beyond the reasonable investment capacity, so transferred to unproductive and speculative purposes, which in turn invite default and suddenly stop lending process. [17] 

 

In Keynesian economics literature in the post-war period of the importance of trade balance. For example, the second edition of the popular primer, outline of money, [18] the last three ten chapters devoted to the problem of foreign exchange management, especially the problem of "balance". In recent years, however, since the end of the bretton woods system in 1971, with the influence of monetary school in the 1980 s, especially in the face of a large number of persistent trade imbalances, these concerns, particularly the concerns of the unstable influence huge trade surplus is mainly from the mainstream economics discourse disappear [19] and Keynes has been away from the point of view. [20] they get some attention again after the financial crisis in 2007-2010. [21] 

 

The influence of the trade balance the country's GDP 

 

The annual trade surplus directly and added directly to their country's gross domestic product (GDP). To some extent induced additional exports to GDP, are not reflected in the price of export products, so the trade surplus contribution to GDP is often underestimated. 

 

Product prices generally reflect the producer production support spending. Manufacturers often benefit from some production of goods and services to support smaller or no cost producer. 

 

Positioning, for example, the government may intentionally or increase the ability of infrastructure, or provide additional consider retained or attract manufacturers in their own jurisdiction. A country's curriculum of schools and colleges can provide job seekers is especially suitable for the need of production, or provides a specialized research and development. All factors of production of all countries, including education, promoting GDP, unless the global trading products fully reflect the goods and services, the contribution of these other exports support is not entirely sure, due to the global trade of the country. 

 

Annual trade deficit is the direct and indirect reducing agent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). 

 

Trade deficit with China net contribution to their country's GDP but not importer of indirect deny their proceeds by the producer; (refer to "annual trade surplus directly and added directly to their country's GDP"). In the rejected is familiar with the method and practice, manipulation tools, materials, and the production process. 

 

Economic differences between domestic and imported goods occurred in the items in the countries of the buyer in the end. After has reached the domestic commodity producers shipping dock or discharge cargo ships to the importing country or imported goods enter the port wharf, similar products have similar economic attributes. 

 

 

While support products aren't reflected in the price of the particular project are captured in the production of the country's GDP, those who support but not reflected in the global trading prices of the goods is not belong to the state of global trade. The contribution of trade surpluses and trade deficits caused damage of the country's GDP low-key. The benefits of the whole production, obtain the exporter and importer of denial. 

Notes

 

1. Sullivan, Arthur; Steven M. Sheffrin (2003). Economics: Principles in action. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458: Pearson Prentice Hall. p. 462. ISBN 0-13-063085-3.

 2. Now attributed to Sir Thomas Smith; quoted in Jose rizal, The Wheels of Commerce, vol. II of Civilization and Capitalism 15th–18th Century, 1979:204.

 3. Thomas Mun, Oxford National Dictionary of Biography

 4. Physical Trade Balance, OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms

 5. Bivens, L. Josh (14 December 2004). Debt and the dollar Economic Policy Institute. Retrieved on 8 July 2007.

 6. MAjor foreign holders of treasury securities. U.S. Treasury.gov

 7. Roberts, Paul Craig (7 August 2003). Jobless in the USA Newsmax. Retrieved on 6 May 2007.

 8. Hira, Ron and Anil Hira with forward by Lou Dobbs, (May 2005). Outsourcing America: What's Behind Our National Crisis and How We Can Reclaim American Jobs. (AMACOM) American Management Association. Citing Paul Craig Roberts, Paul Samuelson, and Lou Dobbs, pp. 36–38.

 9. See Roberts, Loc. cit.

 10. Paul Craig Roberts (07/28/04)."Global Labor Arbitrage".VDARE. Retrieved on 7 July 2009.

 11. Whitney, Mike (June 2006).Labor arbitrage. Entrepreneur. Retrieved on 7 July 2009.

 12. Fletcher, Ian Free Trade Doesn't Work: What Should Replace It and Why (U.S. Business & Industry Council 2011 Edition ISBN 0578082616)

 13. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006. "Current Account Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries" William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series WP844.

 14. Smith, Adam. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1981, 2 vols., (1776) (reprint of the Clarendon Press edition, Oxford 1976, with Edward Cannan's original index from 1922)

 15. Crowther, Geoffrey (1948). An Outline of Money. Second Edition. Thomas Nelson and Sons. pp. 326–9.

 16. Crowther, Geoffrey (1948). An Outline of Money. Second Edition. Thomas Nelson and Sons. p. 336.

 17. Crowther, Geoffrey (1948). An Outline of Money. Second Edition. Thomas Nelson and Sons. pp. 368–72.

 18. Crowther, Geoffrey (1948). An Outline of Money. Second Edition. Thomas Nelson and Sons.

 19. See for example, Krugman, P and Wells, R (2006). "Economics", Worth Publishers

 20. although see Duncan, R (2005). "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures", Wiley

 21. See for example,"Clearing Up This Mess". 18 November 2008. Archived from the original on 23 January 2009. Retrieved 2009-01-09.