金融Essay代寫案例：Stock Market Shocks During The Great Depression and The 2008 Financial Crash

本文是金融專業的Essay代寫范例，題目是“Stock Market Shocks During The Great Depression and The 2008 Financial Crash（大蕭條和2008年金融危機期間的股市震蕩）”，本文考察了股市震蕩對收益和行業的影響。

在大蕭條時期，我們展示了三個主要發現。最初，不利的預算狀況導致組裝部門產量和行業下降，并在11個月后達到頂峰。其次，這個擊暈在耐用品領域比非耐用品領域有一個更值得注意的影響。最后，與1933年和1934年經濟衰退相關的股票市場可能控制了大蕭條的復蘇。這些發現表明，股票市場的缺陷增加了大蕭條的長度和深度。另一方面，2008/2009年全球范圍內的金融危機迅速蔓延，影響了股票市場的運行和執行。鑒于這一轟動效應的重要性，本研究擬通過對當日不可預測性傳導的考察，闡明突發事件對證券交易行為的影響。最后，比較和對比大蕭條和全球金融危機對股票市場變量的影響。

ABSTRACT:摘要

This paper inspects the impact of stuns saw in the Stock Market on yield and vocation. Amid the Great Depression. We display three principle discoveries. Initially, an unfavorable budgetary stun prompts a decrease in the assembling division’s yield and vocation that crests around 11 months a short time later. Next, this stun has a much more noteworthy effect on the durables area than the nondurables division. Last, The Stock Market related to the economy shortcoming in 1933 and 1934 may have controlled the recuperation from the Great Depression. The discoveries propose that Stock Market shortcoming added to the length and profundity of the Great Depression. On the other hand, the spread of the worldwide Financial Crisis of 2008/2009 was quick, and affected the working and the execution of Stock Market. Because of the significance of this sensation, this study plans to clarify the effect of the emergency on securities exchange conduct also reliance through the investigation of the intraday unpredictability transmission. Finally, comparing and contrasting the impact of the Great Depression and the Global Financial Crisis on the Stock Market Variables.

I. Introduction:簡介

Recent occasions have highlighted the impact of monetary framework or the Stock Market disturbances on the macroeconomy. An extensive ensuing writing has analyzed this channel with an accentuation on the impact of disturbances to the saving money framework. (Romer, 2003) Notwithstanding bank disappointments, the Great Depression was additionally a time of noteworthy money related business to a stock stress, which may have added to its seriousness. (Romer, 2003) Roused by this perception, we present confirmation relating Stock Market shocks to real economic outcomes. We look at the impact of stuns reviewed in the Stock Markets utilizing vector auto-relapses (VARs) on month to month information for yield, job, wholesale costs, and a budgetary business sector variable. (Richardson G. , 2006). On the other hand, the recent worldwide Financial Crisis has impressively influenced the Stock Market and is viewed as the most destroying emergency since the Great Depression of 1929. (Treichel, 2012).As per information from the World League of Exchanges, toward the end of 2007 the world value market promotion was more than $66 trillion and forcefully declined in 2009 to remain at $48 trillion a drop of 21.5%, which is equivalent to 27% of worldwide GDP for 2009. (Treichel, 2012) This emergency, which fundamentally started in the US market, spread quickly what's more perilously to created and developing budgetary markets and to genuine economy as far and wide as possible. (Colander, 2009) This paper will significantly examine the crucial consequences of the Great depression and recent Financial Crisis on the Stock Market.

最近的一些事件突出了貨幣框架或股市動蕩對宏觀經濟的影響。隨后的一篇廣泛的文章分析了這一渠道，并著重分析了干擾對儲蓄框架的影響。(羅默，2003)盡管銀行的失望，大蕭條是另外一個值得注意的金錢相關業務的股票壓力的時間，這可能已經增加了其嚴重性。(羅默，2003)在這種觀念的激勵下，我們提出了與股票市場沖擊與實際經濟結果相關的確認。我們利用向量自動復發(VARs)對收益、工作、批發成本和預算業務部門變量的月到月信息，來研究股票市場中回顧的令人震驚的影響。(理查森G.， 2006)。另一方面，最近的全球金融危機給股市帶來了深刻的影響，被認為是自1929年大蕭條以來最具破壞性的緊急情況。(Treichel, 2012)。根據World League of Exchanges提供的信息，截至2007年底，全球價值市場促銷總額超過66萬億美元，2009年強力下降至48萬億美元，降幅達21.5%，相當于2009年全球GDP的27%。(Treichel, 2012)這種緊急情況，從根本上開始于美國市場，迅速蔓延到更危險的創建和發展預算市場和真正的經濟盡可能遠和廣泛。(Colander, 2009)本文將重點研究大蕭條和最近的金融危機對股票市場的關鍵后果。

LITERATURE REVIEW

These sources talk about circumstances and end results of the Great Depression which happened around the 1929 until mid-1930. Here, the creators investigations and specifies a portion of the circumstances and end results of this dejection that influence the United States as well as different countries too. It will likewise be survey a few measurements and actualities began by the Great Depression. (Foreign Affairs, 2007)

The Global Financial Crisis is an essential part of Financial markets is to direct assets to their generally gainful utilizes, and when this capacity is traded off, profit endures and could have long term impact. The most immediate genuine impacts of disturbances in Stock market are on capital reallocation amid and after the severe crisis. (ORGANIZATION, 2010)

The Great Depression as indicated by Temin and White, the first keeping money and banking emergency was brought about by exacerbating essential components, instead of disease among banks. Temin (1976) contends that the Stock Market Crash, the Dust Bowl, and the following monetary, rural, and modern discouragements decreased the estimation of bank's ventures and raised suspension rates. (Richardson, 2007)

正如泰明和懷特所指出的那樣，大蕭條，第一次保留貨幣和銀行業的緊急情況是由于基本要素的惡化而帶來的，而不是銀行間的疾病。Temin(1976)認為，股票市場崩潰、沙塵暴和隨后的貨幣、農村和現代的挫折降低了對銀行風險的估計，并提高了暫停率。(理查森,2007)

The exploration has demonstrated that the connection between the three securities exchange lists have been stronger amid the Financial Crisis that broke out mid-2007 than before the emergency. This outcome is clarified by the way that speculator alarm now and again of Crisis is more exceptional than energy

Communicated amid development periods. (Gammoudi, 2009)

II. The Great Depression.經濟大蕭條。

The Great Depression from 1929 to1939 was the longest enduring and deepest financial downturn in the historical backdrop in the Western industrialized world not only in the United States. (Rodney, 2008) In the United States, the Great Depression started not long after money markets accident of 1929, which delivered Wall Street into a frenzy and wiped out a huge number of financial specialists all over the world. (Edwards, 2005) Throughout the following quite a while, customer spending and venture dropped, bringing about steep decreases in modern yield and climbing levels of unemployment as falling flat organizations laid off specialists. (Edwards, 2005) By 1933, when the Great Depression arrived at its nadir, approximately 13 to 15 million Americans were unemployed and about a large portion of the nation's banks had fizzled. (Pells, 2014) In spite of the fact that the alleviation and change measures set up by President Franklin D. Roosevelt helped reduce the most exceedingly terrible impacts of the Great Depression in the 1930s, the economy would not completely turn around until after 1939, when World War II kicked American industry into high apparatus. (Richardson G. , 2006)

1929年至1939年的大蕭條是西方工業化國家歷史上持續時間最長、最嚴重的金融衰退，而不僅僅是美國。(羅德尼，2008)在美國，1929年的貨幣市場事故發生后不久，大蕭條就開始了，這場事故使華爾街陷入瘋狂，世界各地大量的金融專家喪生。(愛德華茲，2005)在接下來的相當長一段時間里，客戶支出和風險下降，帶來了現代產量的急劇下降和失業率的攀升，因為下降的組織解雇了專家。(愛德華茲，2005)到1933年，當大蕭條達到最低點時，大約有1300萬到1500萬美國人失業，國家的大部分銀行已經倒閉。(《2014)盡管減輕和富蘭克林·d·羅斯福總統設立的改變措施有助于減少最極其可怕的影響在1930年代的大蕭條,美國經濟不會完全扭轉,直到1939年之后,當第二次世界大戰美國工業踢到高裝置。(理查森G.， 2006)

The Stock Market Variables.

The month to month stock unpredictability measure utilized as a part of the study breaks even with the month to month normal of unquestionably the everyday stock returns less the normal stock return for that month. (Chin, 2010) Figure 1 exhibits the monetary variables utilized in the study. Stocks rose significantly through the 1920s. It started to decrease pointedly in the fall of 1929 and arrived at its most reduced point in June 1932. (Chin, 2010).At its trough, the share trading system had declined by more than 83% percent from its top quality. In spite of the fact that the share trading system enhanced with the economy, it didn't come back to its pre-great Depression top level until World War II. The way for stock value developments recommends that the specialist sharp decrease in total assets may have exacerbated the Great Depression.

The Effect on the durable and nondurable good sectors.

Stock and Financial stuns ought to have a more prominent impact on the durables merchandise part than the nondurables area. (Chin, 2010) We gather information on the yield and livelihood of these divisions to look at whether monetary stuns had a more prominent effect on the durables sector. (Chin, 2010) Figure 3 plots the employment and output of these two segments over the example period. Employment and output of the durables part declined steeply over the Great Depression, tumbling from top to trough by around 77 and 57 percent, separately. In correlation, the nondurables part was less influenced amid the Great Depression. (Romer C. D., 2003)

III.The Financial Crisis金融危機

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) or worldwide economic crisis is generally accepted to have started in July 2007 with the credit crunch, when a loss of certainty by US speculators in the estimation of sub-prime home loans brought about a liquidity emergency. (Kapoor, 2010).This, thus, brought about the US Federal Bank infusing a lot of capital into money related markets. By September 2008, the emergency had compounded as securities exchanges around the globe slammed and got to be very unpredictable. (Kapoor, 2010)

全球金融危機(Global Financial Crisis，簡稱GFC)或全球經濟危機，一般認為始于2007年7月的信貸緊縮，當時美國投機者對次級住房貸款的估計失去確定性，導致流動性危機。(卡普爾,2010)。這就導致了美國聯邦銀行向貨幣相關市場注入大量資金。到2008年9月，隨著全球證券交易所的劇烈震蕩和變得非常不可預測，危機變得更加嚴重。(卡普爾,2010)

Effect of recent financial market disruptions The VARs amid the Great Depression to study the impact of the Financial Market sector stuns amid the fall of 2008. Budgetary markets were subject to a progression of unforeseen occasions amid this period, which prompt sharp unfavorable developments in stock costs and credit spreads. (Chin, 2010) The past results propose that these stuns may have a noteworthy effect on the genuine economy. Table 1 displays the evaluated impact of monetary business developments amid September and October, 2008. (Chin, 2010). The evaluated impact on yield and occupation are accounted for at the crest drive reaction time of 11 months and further on at year and a half. (Chin, 2010) The outcomes show that the Stock Market interruptions are evaluated to have a monetarily expansive impact on the assembling sector. At the top, these advancements are assessed to result in output and aggregate hours decreases in the fabricating segment of around 16 and 12 percent, individually. These negative impacts are normal to be very constant, enduring admirably into 2010. (Chin, 2010)

Table 1: (Chin, 2010)

The Financial Crisis and the Behavior of Stock Prices金融危機與股票價格行為

As the explore of the impact of the late Financial Crisis on the conduct of stock costs utilizing the day by day returns of thirty one noteworthy US stocks over the 2007/08 period. (Rodney, 2008)Unequivocal mean day by day returns tumbled to negative levels, unequivocal instability surged more than two hundred percent, relationship between stocks debilitated and the danger lessening advantage of portfolio expansion rose. Beta danger expanded fundamentally for monetary stocks and the significance of business danger for them dropped. (Colander, 2009)

作為后期金融危機對股票成本行為的影響的探索，利用31只值得注意的美國股票在2007/08年期間的每日回報。(羅德尼，2008)毫無疑問的逐日平均回報率跌至負水平，毫無疑問的不穩定性飆升超過200%，股票市場疲軟，投資組合擴張帶來的風險減少優勢上升。貨幣類股票的貝塔危險從根本上擴大了，而商業危險的重要性則下降了。(濾器,2009)

IV. The differences between The Great Depression and Financial Crisis.

The Monetary Policy and Deficit Spending

Firstly, the Stock Market Crash is one of the causes of the Great Depression. But, in 2007 Crisis the mortgage issues was responsible for implementing the Financial Crisis. (Cukierman, 2009) Therefore, not the Stock Market. Before the Great Depression, the United States was under the extremely thrifty authority of the Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge organizations. (Cukierman, 2009) Both made solid strides to somberness and keeping up fiscal obligation. The comprehension of financial arrangement was straightforward: the central government ought to be run on an adjusted plan. The immense part the central government now plays, particularly as to Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, and military spending with respect to the deficient expense rates we craving, is unsustainable. In any case, amid a financial emergency, private spending dissipates. This is tricky in light of the fact that shopper spending speaks to 70% of the United States economy. (Cukierman, 2009) In the 1930s, there were various economists who contended strenuously for a do-nothing arrangement. Yet as the Great Depression delayed and fallen in 1937 when preservationists were fruitful in having the national government slice the monetary allowance shortage (it tumbled from 5.5% of GDP in 1936 to 0% in 1938) they lost believability. Economists today for the most part accept that it was the extraordinary shortfalls coming about because of World War II that really finished the Great Depression. (Colander, 2009)

GDP Growth國內生產總值增長

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) development is presumably the best consider figuring out what constitutes a melancholy versus a subsidence. The most oversimplified meaning of a subsidence is when monetary development contracts for two quarters straight; notwithstanding, the seriousness is measured in genuine decay, not just by the refinement in the middle of positive and negative development. (Edwards, 2005) The economy was moderating in 2007, and fell by -0.7 and +0.6 in the first and second quarters of 2008, separately, however then tumbled off a bluff. The third and fourth quarters of 2008 were -4.0% and -6.8%, individually, taken after by -6.40% and 0.70% in the first and second quarters of 2009. (Colander, 2009) The fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were the first progressive quarters subsequent to the Great Depression that maintained development beneath -5.0%. (Edwards, 2005)

國內生產總值(GDP)的發展大概是最好的考慮因素，以確定是憂郁還是沉陷。下沉最簡單的含義是指貨幣發展連續兩個季度收縮;盡管如此，其嚴重性是用真正的衰敗來衡量的，而不僅僅是在積極和消極的發展中所表現出來的精煉。(愛德華茲，2005年)經濟在2007年放緩，2008年第一季度和第二季度分別下跌了-0.7和+0.6，然而隨后暴跌。2008年第三和第四季度分別為-4.0%和-6.8%，2009年第一和第二季度分別為-6.40%和0.70%。(Colander, 2009) 2008年第四季度和2009年第一季度是大蕭條之后第一個將發展維持在-5.0%以下的進步季度。(愛德華茲,2005)

Conclusion結論

The relative comparison did in this paper was coordinated to check the conduct of the most synthetic and collected marker accessible between the Great Depression and the Financial Crisis. The Great Depression was additionally a time of noteworthy money related business to a stock stress that ranked as the deepest financial downturn in the historical backdrop of the industrialized world. The Great Depression started not long after money markets accident of October 1930, which delivered Wall Street into a wiped out a huge number of financial specialists. In addition to the impact on other variables at its trough. Firstly, the share trading system had reduced by more than 82 percent from its top quality and the everyday stock returns less the normal stock return for that month. Secondly, the impact on the durables and nondurables good sector that significantly had a crucial effect on employment and output of the durables part declined steeply over the Great Depression, tumbling from top to trough by around 77 and 57 percent. On the other hand, The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) or worldwide economic crisis is generally accepted to have started in July 2007 with the credit crunch that recently had prompt of a sharp unfavorable and downturns of developments in stock costs and credit spreads on recent financial market disruptions. Finally, the analytical comparison between the Great Depression and the Financial Crisis on the Monetary Policy and Deficit Spending that actually both made solid strides to somberness and keeping up fiscal obligation. Finally, the GDP Growth that presumably considered figuring out what constitutes a melancholy versus a subsidence between the Great Depression and the Global Financial Crisis.

本文所做的相對比較是協調的，以檢查在大蕭條和金融危機之間最容易獲得的合成和收集的標記的行為。大蕭條是另一個值得注意的金錢相關業務的時間，股票壓力排名為工業化世界歷史背景下最嚴重的金融衰退。1930年10月的貨幣市場事故后不久，大蕭條就開始了，這場事故導致華爾街大量金融專家喪生。除此之外，對其他變量的影響也處于低谷。首先，股票交易系統的質量下降了82%以上，每天的股票回報低于當月的正常股票回報。其次，對就業有著重要影響的耐用品和非耐用品行業的影響在大蕭條期間急劇下降，從頂部到底部分別下跌了約77%和57%。另一方面，全球金融危機(GFC)或世界范圍內的經濟危機被普遍認為是始于2007年7月的信貸緊縮，最近引發了急劇不利的股票成本和信貸息差的發展，最近的金融市場混亂。最后，對大蕭條和金融危機的貨幣政策和赤字支出進行了分析比較，實際上兩者都朝著黯淡的方向邁出了堅實的步伐，并保持了財政義務。最后，GDP增長大概考慮了是什么構成了大蕭條和全球金融危機之間的沉淪。

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