美國宏觀經濟問題及其可能的補救方法（US macroeconomic problem and its possible remedy）

Introduction引言

美國股市自去年夏天以來一直保持著次級抵押貸款危機，整個金融體系的表現一直影響著世界其他地區。這場危機是從高利率的房貸借款給次級客戶，在高風險的環境下，導致次級抵押貸款機構破產，投資基金破產影響了股市的大幅度波動，并最終形成了次級按揭貸款危機。

The sub-prime mortgage loan crisis happened in US since last summer has maintained its effects on the US stock market, financial system, overall economic performance as well as the rest of the world. The crisis is occurred from the borrowing of higher interest rate loans to the sub-prime customers to buy the house; the risk is high, later caused the bankruptcy of the sub-prime mortgage organizations, closes down of the investment funds, great fluctuation of the stock market, and finally formed the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis.

然而依靠美國2007年強勁的出口和消費，使得經濟繼續保持小幅度增長。在我看來，利率上升給其他國家帶來的負面影響將是美國未來幾年所面臨的一個主要宏觀經濟問題。
However, led by the strong exports and consumption, the economy of US in 2007 maintained slight growth. In my opinion, the increasing interest rates in recent years caused the significant negative effects to the country, and this will be still a major macroeconomic problem of US in the coming years.

 

Main body正文

 

Based on the data, the Federal Reserve constantly increased the interest rate; meanwhile, the prices of the house increased all the time, these factors seriously influenced the consumers’ demands on the houses. Since 2006, the sales volume of houses decreased significantly, it is reflected that 1% increase of the mortgage loan rate will indicate the reduction of 250,000 houses sales. Under the situation of the seventeen constant increases of the interest rates, the sales on the new houses and second hand houses decreased significantly. The sales volume decreased from around 1.3 million in 2005 to around 1 million in 2006, moreover, in the first ten months of 2007, the volume stood at about 80,000.  (Source: http://china.fxstreet.com/, viewed at 2008-3-10)

 

This will cause the serious problem, till October 2007, the number of unsold houses reached to the twice of the number in 2005, i.e. 4.5 million. The sharp decrease of the sales volume became the burden to the companies, people as well as the whole economy. 

 

The price of the houses fell continuously, which caused serious negative effects of the whole economy. The frustrated real estate market directly caused the problems on the macro economy in two main aspects: firstly, the increasing rate of breach of the house mortgage loan led to the problems in the credit of the markets, the finance industry suffered and made significant losses; secondly, the investment in the real estate and related industry dampened, encumbered the GDP growth. Especially in the recent two years, the investment in the real estate contributed less to the GDP growth, even the negative effects. (Source:https://www.financialtimes.net/, viewed at 2008-3-11)#p#分頁標題#e#

 

The Federal Reserve started to reduce the interest rates, at the same time, the real estate market began to turn better and grow. As long as the reducing interests and tightened credit from the banks, the investment in the real estate decreased gradually, thus, the houses of inventory will reduce.

 

In addition, a large part of the problematic sub-prime mortgages were offered by the banks between the year 2004 and 2006, the increasing interest rates for the people will cause greater burden. Moreover, it is evident that the problem of sub-prime mortgage offered in 2007 may occur in 2008, which may challenge the overall economy and the credit system at that time.

 

Prescribed Policy政策規定

 

Under the current situation, the US government needs to deal with this problem through diverse policies and approaches. Directly, the Federal Reserve may decrease the interest rate to stimulate the consumption of the markets, thus improve the overall economy. Meanwhile, the decreased interest rate will decrease the costs of the consumers, people do not need to undertake great interest burden in purchasing the houses or other products. Especially for the real estate market, the continuously lower interest rate will increase the purchasing power and motivation of the consumers; moreover, the investment in the real estate industry will become warmer.

 

In addition, the authorities may choose to maintain weak US dollar in the international market against other currencies such like EU, RMB and so forth. This will bring the country opportunities and advantages in its exports, the strong exports will then contribute to its economic growth, which may offset the negative effects caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

 

Also, the Federal Reserve may also loosen the availability of money supply. This will stimulate the consumption as well as the investment directly. Under this situation, the companies in different industries will make efforts to expand their businesses, more money or capital will be needed for their expansion, the increase in the money supply will provide the companies opportunities to grow and expand. The employment and other related economic indicators will be improved, thus the economy will be better. Within the economy, there are diverse industries operating in the country, the encouragement to the industries will also facilitate the revival of real estate industry. The government may need to subsidize the companies and industries, which are in the bad situations; this will improve the overall performance of the industries and economy, especially for the real estate market.

 

Moreover, it is expected that the reduction on the interest rate will help to improve the economy; however, the interest rate is usually considered with the inflation, if the interest rate is much higher, the inflation may occur, which will cause serious economic problems again. The government needs to adjust the two factors, and achieve a balance in the end.#p#分頁標題#e#

 

Therefore, the above are the discussions about the US macroeconomic problem and its remedies and approaches. In fact, there are many different methods and approaches to deal with the macroeconomic problem, but it is necessary and important for the authority to generate the most appropriate combination of the measurements in order to achieve the most effective results.

 

 

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