英國倫敦大學(xué)畢業(yè)dissertation部分介紹：不同模式方法對(duì)第一太平戴維斯公司的影響

Method of discounted cash flow
現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)方法

Method of Dividend Incremental working capital rate is from past years average data:
Incremental working capital Rate = working capital / Sales
Incremental capital expenditure rate is from past years average data:
Incremental capital expenditure Rate = capital expenditure / Sales
The anticipated result DCFF is £17.54,
The anticipation result of DCFE is £8.55.
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The anticipated result is higher than market value £3.14 at present. It is mainly due to lower market value of debt

Discount Model
貼現(xiàn)模型

Fixed payoff ratio assumption: use the fixed payoff ratio can forecast the beyond growth rate and dividend more precisely.
The two result due to usage of PRAT model.
PRAT model is used to calculate the terminal growth rate. The formula is:
Growth rate = (1 – dividend payout ratio) * ROE
Note: Because the ROE used here is for calculate the beyond figure, so the select of ROE followed the assumption of Savills Company has a constant advantage in competitive. ROE is from past years average.
So the share price PRAT model result is £6.13, the result is quite close the DDM which is £5.15, mainly due to the small debt in the Savills Company.

Discussions about different results from three models.
三種模型不同結(jié)果的討論

The share price calculated from cash flow model is £8.55(DCFE) and DDM payout is £5.15 have a lower result than DCFE model. EVA model is £5.14. DDM PRAT model is £6.13.All the result is higher than current market price (£3.14). Particularly, only the consequence of DCFF which is £17.54 is much higher than actual result.
 
The reasons behind these huge different from result are the lower debt leverage ratio and revaluation of assets in 2009 – which result the lower market value of debt, also, the lowest interest rate in UK is only 0.5% in 2009.

In the calculation of forecasting balance sheet and cash flow, one of the hiding assumptions is: the lower debt gearing ratio and assets revaluation will not change forever. Because it hard to anticipate when and how they will change. Even it could anticipated, the changes in chart will lead a bias in future forecasting, since the followed numbers are calculated under certain rules from previous numbers.

This is why the share price calculated from cash flow model is £17.54 and DDM actual payout is £5.15.

The calculation of dividend is from return of assets. In PRAT model, final ROE is determined from past years’ average. So the result of share price (£6.13) represents the condition which ignored the lower market value of debt.

Summary
摘要

In conclusion, the anticipated share price is between £5.14 and £17.54. The reason behind is the assumption of whether Savills Company could increase the gearing ratio and assets revaluation problems and to what distance. This reason will determine the final result of share price.
In long run, after the financial crisis, the value of long term assets like lends and properties will ultimately increase. The increased fixed asset can help Savills to grow the gearing ratio in order to obtain a higher working capital.  It is unlikely to reduce because it is hard to decrease employees’ income after financial crisis, but this also can offset by decrease real income under inflation.
長遠(yuǎn)來看，金融危機(jī)后，像長期資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值，出借和性能最終將提高。固定資產(chǎn)的增加可以幫助第一太平戴維斯增長的資本負(fù)債比率，以獲得更高的營運(yùn)資金。這是不太可能減少，因?yàn)樗墙鹑谖C(jī)后，努力降低員工收入，但是這也可以抵消通脹下的實(shí)際收入減少。

Still these assumptions are in uncertain. So the current price fluctuate £3.14 seems reasonable.