試論從近期國(guó)際事件看美國(guó)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略

America's global economic strategy, in the final analysis is to maintain the dollar World War II to build the core of the international economic system. In order to maintain the effective functioning of this system, the United States faced with the task at different times different measures are different. But one thing is very clear that the more critical in the United States to maintain its global economic strategy moves the more obvious. The financial crisis came to America with the previous situation is somewhat similar to the 1970s, if the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system was to be the era of the United States need to be made "smart" move, then this is how to do it? If the 1980s against the Soviet Union, Japan and Germany are its three major competitors in the important task at this time will how to do it? The author believes that to maintain its single-handedly created the opportunity to fight the global economic system and the opponent is the top priority of U.S. global economic strategy. Following on from these two areas to expand specific analysis, using the financial crisis to a series of specific events to explain the U.S. strategy in the new era of global economic performance of the new.

美國(guó)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略，說(shuō)到底就是維持二戰(zhàn)來(lái)建立的以美元為核心的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)體系。為了維持這個(gè)體系的有效運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，美國(guó)在不同時(shí)代面臨的任務(wù)不同，采取的措施也有所不同。但有一點(diǎn)是非常明確的，越是在危急中美國(guó)維持其全球經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略的舉動(dòng)越是明顯。這次金融危機(jī)來(lái)美國(guó)的處境與上個(gè)世紀(jì)70年代有點(diǎn)類似，如果說(shuō)當(dāng)時(shí)布雷頓森林體系的解體是美國(guó)應(yīng)時(shí)代的需要作出的“明智”之舉，那么這次會(huì)怎么辦呢？如果說(shuō)80年代打擊蘇日德這三大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手是其當(dāng)時(shí)的重要任務(wù)，這次又會(huì)怎么辦呢？筆者認(rèn)為，維持其一手建立的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系和借機(jī)打擊對(duì)手是美國(guó)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略的重中之重。

One, tried to maintain the old international economic order

一、極力維持舊的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序

After World War II the United States relying on their superior strength to establish a complete set of services in the international economic system of U.S. hegemony, despite the constant hit and challenges, but so far still effective running. http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_writing/Ecommerce Summer of 2007, the outbreak of the subprime crisis in the United States, followed by the evolution of the international financial crisis sweeping the globe. Financial crisis to reform the international economic system, growing stronger and stronger, global demand for the dollar system reform increased demand. With Nobel Laureate in Economics Shitilizi (Joseph Stiglitz) and other components of the United Nations Independent Commission considers that the dollar in the global monetary system led to global imbalances dominate position, calling for a separate new global reserve currency to replace the dollar dominant position to solve the problems caused by a single reserve currency. Similarly, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed establishment of a "super-sovereign currency" proposal has also been a positive response in many countries. In fact, when the financial crisis continue to spread in the case of all countries are facing for decades the most important choice: either to risk everything to save the dollar system, or choose to find new and better solutions. Indeed, it was after the crisis has opened a prelude to reform the Bretton Woods system, and this system is now a cornerstone of U.S. global economic hegemony. In this time of crisis, the United States will be how to do it?

二戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)依托于自身超群的實(shí)力建立了一整套服務(wù)于美國(guó)霸權(quán)的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)體系，盡管不斷遭受打擊與挑戰(zhàn)，但迄今為止仍在有效的運(yùn)行著。2007年夏天，次貸危機(jī)在美國(guó)爆發(fā)，緊接著演化為席卷全球的國(guó)際金融危機(jī)。金融危機(jī)讓改革國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的呼聲日趨強(qiáng)烈，全球?qū)Ω母锩涝w系的呼聲日趨高漲。以諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主史提利茲(Joseph Stiglitz)等組成的聯(lián)合國(guó)獨(dú)立委員會(huì)認(rèn)為美元在全球貨幣系統(tǒng)中的獨(dú)霸地位導(dǎo)致了全球失衡，呼吁另立新的全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣，取代目前美元獨(dú)大的地位，解決單一儲(chǔ)備貨幣帶來(lái)的問(wèn)題。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶，中國(guó)人民銀行行長(zhǎng)周小川提出的設(shè)立“超主權(quán)貨幣”的建議也得到了很多國(guó)家積極的響應(yīng)。事實(shí)上，在當(dāng)時(shí)金融危機(jī)不斷蔓延的情形下，所有的國(guó)家都面臨著幾十年來(lái)最重大的抉擇：要么奮不顧身地拯救美元體系，要么擇尋更新、更好的解決方案。

From the practical point of view of international relations, the current world economic system is essentially in a "Group hegemonism" era - the oppression of developed countries to come together to the United States in which they benefit the most. Despite exist between developed countries, international economic competition for dominance in competition, but once the existing system may have been substantial damage, other countries will stand behind the United States. Because the system itself is the service for them, quite the U.S. is quite themselves. This also indirectly reflects the current international mechanisms are still controlled by powerful, or Hoffman advocate the kind of "post-hegemonic" mechanism. Before the crisis, the United States on the effective use of the above mechanism, trying to save his own and established international economic order.

Last year, the closing of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, climate change, international negotiations into three forces - the European Union, the umbrella group (the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan, etc.), developing countries (G77 + China). After a heated argument, in fact the first two forces fighting for the United States, and finally reached a non-binding agreement legally binding, and impossible to give us a vivid "collective hegemony" course.

In the reform of the international financial order in front of a strong voice, as the most representative international economic organizations, the World Bank and the IMF, of course bear the brunt of it. In the face of strong international pressure, the developed countries agreed in principle to just give up 5% of the IMF, World Bank, 3% of the voting rights. Bank transfer be done, but the IMF voting rights transfer has not yet been signs of relenting. Even after the success of developing and developed countries transfer of the right to speak for the first time close to balance, but still firmly in control of the United States control over the full range of Western and Japanese still controls the two international organizations. The two organizations agreed to vote the ratio is 85%, as long as any country has 15% of the voting rights on the owner of the right of veto. After the reform, the United States or are currently the only organization in the two countries have veto power. Therefore, the reform of the voting rights is only made minor adjustments only, a new name, the original international economic system still did not undergo substantial changes. Developed "stubborn" Certainly, what makes the majority of developing countries discontent, and in the face of crisis, good "rainy day" in the United States or as much as possible to minimize the possibility of trouble. The author believes, G20 G8 itself meaningful alternative is to win over the United States who are most likely to grow because of the strength and disaffection on the existing system to challenge the emerging power of a useful attempt. American emerging countries led by China, will be pulled this system, give you a hope for the future, hoping to defuse the rise of emerging powers caused a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, the current international economic situation is quite similar to Wallerstein's "center - Half Edge - Edge" mode. US-led G7 central position, the other G13 in a semi-edge position, while the rest of the country is at the edge position. As the core strength of the global economy, as long as the G20 status quo, the current international economic system, there will not be much change, it reached the United States to maintain its global economic strategy, the primary objective.

Second, use every opportunity to crack down on opponents

Hegemonic stability theory in the United States in a difficult situation inside and outside made, as the moving party hegemonic stability theory, the United States has long wanted a good practice to treat the next challenger. In the post-Cold War era of globalization, the United States to deal with the economy the way competitors has undergone great changes, often take advantage of market economy as a destructive force, planning global economic warfare campaign against international opponents, thus maintaining its world economic hegemony. Asia alone, the rise of Japan after World War II, "Tigers", "four tigers", which is not the United States to pack too? The so-called "democratic peace theory" is simply a lie, who said democracies do not fighting a war? United States as long as possible will have the opportunity to knock down the opponent, hit his country's economy would beggar thy neighbor a profit themselves. But such a war relatively mild, taking the form of economic warfare is nothing, the financial crisis to the U.S. dollar against the euro guard move is the reality version of "democratic peace."

As we all know, after World War II by the U.S. economic hegemony is to support the dollar hegemony. To the U.S. dollar hegemony benefits is huge, it can be manufactured junk dollar global inflation, dollar devaluation by other countries so hard to earn foreign exchange reserves shrink. Greenspan led the United States to pursue a policy of asset bubbles in turn triggered the global financial crisis, the global confidence in the dollar to drop, the voice of the dollar system reform has reached historic highs.

So far, the real ability to defend the action only euro currency status of the dollar. From the birth of the euro began, the euro-dollar exchange rate rose steadily in the international arena quickly occupied the second largest currency status. U.S. concerns about the euro before the birth of their not there, 1992 Soros "time" on a £ sniper, prompting England's hopes of joining the euro. 2003 Kosovo crisis, the United States took advantage of the situation in Europe disturbed, disrupted the pace of euro area enlargement. Financial crisis began early, global confidence in the dollar greatly reduced. In dollar suffered crisis, the United States can not sit euros to erode their own sites. The situation at the time, the best strategy is to attack the United States for defense, "we must remember that" and rely on against the strongest competitor to save dollars. In the circumstances, bring down the euro or the euro down credit, make it impossible to compete with the dollar, is certainly the United States would want to do.

The source of the financial crisis in the United States, since the beginning of the financial crisis, people's confidence in the dollar declined significantly against the U.S. criticism has reached a new climax. Many countries quite comprehensive holdings of euro dollar lighten the wishes of the euro to become the next dominant currency is also expected to have increased. That was when the euro became the object of attack. In the early stages of the crisis, the United States hopes will save dollars in gold. The use of the Wall Street financial advantages, the United States manipulated gold market, gold prices rise dramatically around the world and then dumped their currencies for U.S. dollars to arbitrage gold. In the above strategy under the guidance of the United States through this leverage the success of the gold dollar survive, the world's leading currency other than U.S. dollars are substantial devaluation of the euro devaluation of course also in the list. Premier Wen has a saying that good, confidence is more important than gold, especially in the financial sector. In the voices of doubt in the world against the U.S. dollar, the U.S. dollar faces life and death of the occasion, the United States through such methods successfully defended the dollar's status, the dollar became the only true safe haven currency investors, the only one strong challenger hope of shattered. Tan Yaling China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute told the "China Times" reporter, said: "The U.S. government's skillful use of exchange rate policy, far exceeding market imagine, in the new economic era, firmly grasp 'confidence, psychological' four word mantra of the U.S. government can arbitrarily by regulating the foreign exchange market, making the stock and futures markets and commodity markets in accordance with the needs of its own policy changes. 

 

In fact, the crackdown is far from over. With gold weighed on the euro, the dollar crisis is just out of the most dangerous moment. America knows that the euro was a big trouble, but also to use every opportunity to combat the euro. In this European debt crisis, there is the figure of U.S. agencies continue to appear. A few years ago Goldman Sachs to help with complex financial instruments hides a lot of Greek debt, so that would have enough conditions to join the euro in Greece to join smoothly. Superficially Goldman Sachs in the Greek debt crisis is the role of financial institutions and conflicting interests between sovereign states, in essence, this is to prevent the European integration strategy in economic performance between Europe and hidden behind the international financial dominance of the competition. Ten years ago the United States may begin the layout in the euro area "mixed sand" strategy, chess game early with cloth is good, the debt crisis is a matter of time. Once the Greek problems, and do not save the rest of the eurozone rescue is a problem. If inappropriate measures may thus lead to a domino effect, the collapse of the euro zone is inevitable.

Who blew up after a larger debt crisis in Europe? Objectively speaking, PIGS is the culprit, but the United States played a role in fueling the back is still quite a lot. Since the crisis, the European public has continually accused the Wall Street financial giants deliberately exaggerating the European debt crisis, trying to check euro derive huge profits. Even the CNN web site also published an article accusing the United States of speculation Group is the euro crisis "conspiracy leader." These remarks are indeed present their evidence, the U.S. investment banking and financial tycoon was on the big bad-mouthing the euro, hoping to profit from shorting the euro. Soros certainly would not miss this good opportunity to attack with 1992 pounds and making the Asian financial crisis in 1997 the two prominent "criminal record", the global Soros intends to issue euro sniper course lightly. As in Europe, the International Trade IMF Managing Director, Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the counter when you said helplessly to create world currency to replace the dollar.

In addition, the Greek debt crisis, the euro zone countries' debt related suffered three major credit rating agencies downgraded, triggering a severe shock to the euro. Considerable extent, these institutions which played a role in fueling. These three institutions are all associated with the government has a major interest of U.S. companies, the U.S. government in which the role can imagine. In fact, the United States and Europe are in a huge debt. But the three major U.S. rating agencies, but he did not fall, just point to the problems of European countries. We look at the event's effect: the impact of the debt crisis, the dollar rose strongly, a lot of international capital flows to the United States by the European market. This year the United States to promote financial and economic stability is the most critical issue financing, the use of both the debt crisis hit the opponent has plenty of its own, the United States why not do it? As the debt crisis continues to spread, in which the United States played a negative role will become increasingly apparent, to which we will see.